EVEN THE BIDEN ECONOMY CAN'T FIGHT HISTORY:

1. One Party in Power [...]

The last three midterm elections which featured one-party control of the White House, House and Senate were 2006, 2010, and 2018. In all three cases, the president's party lost the House. In 2010, Democrats lost seats but managed to hold the Senate. They lost Senate control in the 2014 midterms. 

2. President Biden's Low Job Approval Ratings [...]

Biden's job approval sits within the range of the previous three presidents who presided over big midterm losses. According to Gallup, Pres. George W. Bush clocked in at 38 percent in late October of 2006. Pres. Barack Obama was between 42-45 percent in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, while President Trump's showing in late October of 2018 was 43 percent.  [...]

3. Enthusiasm Gap [...]

There are multiple ways to explore the enthusiasm gap for the upcoming midterm. 

First, we can look at the intensity of support/opposition to Biden from 2020 voters. In this case, I looked at a cross-tab in Marist polling taken this year that asks respondents to say if they voted for Trump or Biden in 2020. Between April and June, those who voted for Biden and those for Trump felt equally supportive/unfavorably about Biden. For example, in June, Biden's job approval rating among those who said they voted for him last year was +86, while those who voted for Trump disapproved of Biden by a similar margin -86. 

But, starting in August, opposition to Biden rose among Trump voters (-92), while support among Biden voters dropped (+67). In the most recent polling, the gap between support of Biden voters and the opposition by Trump voters is 19 points (+74 to -93). 

We can also look to qualitative research. Focus groups of Democratic-leaning younger and so-called 'surge' voters (those who showed up in 2020 but not in a previous election year), show decided drop in enthusiasm for the president and the party.

And then there are election results. An analysis of the recent New Jersey governors election by Tom Bonier of TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, found that while turnout among Democrats was up by 65,000 voters from 2017, turnout among Republicans was up a whopping 195,000. As such, the overall share of the electorate in New Jersey was 4.2 percent less Democratic and 3 points more Republican.  [...]

4. Independent Voters

With Democrats feeling less enthusiastic, and Republicans united in opposition, Democrats can ill-afford to lose support from independent-leaning voters. Unfortunately, that's exactly what's happening. And, is similar to what happened in the previous midterms. 

Since 2010, the sitting president entered the fall of the midterm election year with a job approval rating among independents anywhere between 38 and 45 percent. In all three of those midterm elections, the party in the White House lost independent voters by double-digits. 

Tweet   @brothersjudd