November 17, 2021
THANKS, JOE:
The government dramatically underestimated job growth this summer (Andrew Van Dam, 11/16/21, Washington Post)
The government sharply underestimated job gains for most of 2021, including four months this summer in which it missed more job growth than at any other time on record.In the most recent four months with revisions, June through September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported it underestimated job growth by a cumulative 626,000 jobs -- that's the largest underestimate of any other comparable period, going back to 1979. If those revisions were themselves a jobs report, they'd be an absolute blockbuster.In an average month before the pandemic, estimates would be revised by a little over 30,000 jobs, or just 0.02 percent of all the jobs in the United States. The recent revisions to the jobs reports have been much larger.
And then folks wonder why people "feel" like the economy must be bad even though their own financial situation is great and they're spending money at record pace. It's almost like personal feelings aren't economic indicators...
Posted by Orrin Judd at November 17, 2021 1:59 PM