DONALD WHO?:

I designed a model that takes into account experts' race ratings, the last presidential vote in each state, whether the incumbent is running for reelection, and the generic congressional ballot. I did that for the 2022 cycle and examined how these factors were correlated with Senate election outcomes since 2006. Based on those calculations, the GOP's odds are roughly 3 in 4 (75%) to pick up one seat for a majority. The most likely outcome is a Republican net gain of two to three seats.

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