CONFIRMATION WAS THE FINAL NAIL:

Just about every poll predicts it won't happen: Suburban voters are too fed up with Donald Trump, and Democrats too awash in cash, for Nancy Pelosi's party not to seize the House on Nov. 6.

And yet House Republicans -- and privately, even a few Democrats -- say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. [...]

Nevertheless, it's indisputable Republicans are in a serious jam: Democrats have infinitely more paths to win the chamber than Republicans do of holding it. Even Republicans admit that Democrats have already closed out about 15 races, well over halfway to the 23 seats they need to win the majority. Democrats are competing in more than 75 districts currently represented by Republicans, giving them ample room to secure the final dozen seats needed to take the majority.

At the same time, Republicans say there's no question that their lot has improved in the past few weeks. Their internal polls show the president's approval ratings have increased by an average of 5 points in a handful of swing districts, giving Republicans who were underwater a fighting chance.

GOP fortunes have improved in a grab bag of districts, from Trump strongholds where the Kavanaugh battle has energized conservatives, to racially diverse districts where incumbents with strong connections to voters appear to be staving off challengers. [...]

Of course, everything would have to break their way for Republicans to eke out a victory. For one, several party officials said it's critical that President Donald Trump not antagonize more suburban women in the run-up to the election with comments like the "horseface" insult he hurled at Stormy Daniels this week.

They also said they need to prolong the momentum of the Kavanaugh confirmation for a few more weeks -- or, better, build upon it.

Tweet   @brothersjudd