January 3, 2016

IT'S THE GROWN-UP PARTY:

The GOP's Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump (DAVID WASSERMAN, 1/03/16, 538)

In reality, the GOP nominating contest will be decided by an intricate, state-by-state slog for the 2,472 delegates at stake between February and June. And thanks to the Republican National Committee's allocation rules, the votes of "Blue Zone" Republicans -- the more moderate GOP primary voters who live in Democratic-leaning states and congressional districts -- could weigh more than those of more conservative voters who live in deeply red zones. Put another way: The Republican voters who will have little to no sway in the general election could have some of the most sway in the primary.

As The New York Times' Nate Cohn astutely observed in January, Republicans in blue states hold surprising power in the GOP presidential primary process even though they are "all but extinct in Washington, since their candidates lose general elections to Democrats." This explains why Republicans have selected relatively moderate presidential nominees while the party's members in Congress have continued to veer right.

The key to this pattern: "Blue-state Republicans are less religious, more moderate and less rural than their red-state counterparts," Cohn concluded after crunching Pew Research survey data. By Cohn's math, Republicans in states that Obama won in 2012 were 15 percentage points likelier to support Romney in the 2012 primary and 9 points likelier to support McCain in 2008 than their red-state compatriots. Romney and McCain's advantage in blue states made it "all but impossible for their more conservative challengers to win the nomination," Cohn wrote.

Blue-state Republicans have already propelled moderates in the 2016 money chase. According to Federal Election Commission filings, donors in the 18 states (plus Washington, D.C.) that have voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992 have accounted for 45 percent of Rubio's total itemized contributions, 45 percent of Bush's, 53 percent of Fiorina's and 85 percent of Chris Christie's. By contrast, they've provided just 20 percent of Cruz's contributions and 36 percent of Carson's. For comparison, blue-state Republicans cast just 37 percent of all votes in the 2012 GOP primaries.2

But their real mojo lurks in the delegate chase. The electorate that nominates GOP presidential candidates is much bluer than the ones that nominate other GOP officials, a distinction that is almost impossible to overstate. Look at where the Republican Party lives: Only 11 of 54 GOP senators and 26 of 247 GOP representatives hail from Obama-won locales, but there are 1,247 delegates at stake in Obama-won states, compared with just 1,166 in Romney states.

What's more, an imbalance lies in a nuance of the RNC's delegate allocation.

Posted by at January 3, 2016 6:30 PM

  

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