January 24, 2016

Odds Are on the GOP to Win the White House, Unless...  (Eric Pianin, January 24, 2016, Fiscal Times)



Using economics models as a forecaster is another way to predict presidential winners. Yale professor Ray Fair developed the Fair model, which focuses exclusively on Gross Domestic Product growth per capita and the inflation rate to predict what share of the popular vote the Democrats and Republicans are likely to pick up.

"Because this recovery has been so sluggish, even though inflation has also been low, almost any realistic assumptions about how the economy might perform between now and Election Day leads to a Republican victory," Rattner asserts.

To be more precise, the model - using consensus estimates of how well the economy will perform this year--suggests that the Democrats will pick up no more than 46 percent of the vote. That would mean a landslide victory for the GOP.

As for the accuracy of this technique, Rattner says the model has only been wrong three times dating back to 1916. However, Democrats can take heart: One of the few times the model was dead wrong occurred in 2012, when it projected Obama would get only 49 percent of the vote against Republican Mitt Romney but wound up receiving 51.3 percent.



The danger is a GOP nominee with high enough negatives to match the UR's, as Mitt had in 2012.

Posted by at January 24, 2016 8:04 AM

  

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