OLD THINK IN THE NEW WORLD:

Less government meddling could unlock green energy's power: The book 'Reinventing Fire' outlines what consumers and industries need to do to make energy independence a reality. Much of the vision involves letting market forces and innovation work their magic. (Michael Hiltzik, 10/30/11, LA Times)

A similar choice between old thinking and new opportunities confronts the utility industry.

Lovins says he has been working with the industry to show that their traditional assumptions about the practicality of wind and solar power are outdated. The standard calculation has been that wind and solar could never reliably account for 2% to 3% of supply, he observes.

But "Reinventing Fire" makes the case that with geographically distributed sources and incentives for consumers to time their demand more flexibly, the real figure could be 50% or more.

The wind may be calm in one place but gusting elsewhere; the skies might be cloudy all day over one solar farm but blue over another.

Smart meters allow utilities to offer time-of-use incentives to encourage homeowners to shift some consumption to off-peak hours. (For years I've had time-of-use billing at my home, which effectively pays me to run my laundry appliances and dishwasher before 10 a.m. and after 6 p.m.)

Put those factors together, and managing the variability of renewable energy sources doesn't look much more challenging than managing that of conventional power plants. After all, fossil fuel generation plants are taken offline for planned maintenance or unexpected failures 10% to 14% of the time, on average.

Utilities manage those interruptions the same way Lovins foresees them dealing with the variability of wind and solar -- by diversifying their sources.

In Lovins' view, the main obstacle to a future unchained from oil is the old thinking of vested interests.

Posted by oj at October 29, 2011 3:00 PM
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