October 4, 2010
ELECTIONS ARE EASY, RE-ELECTIONS ARE HARD:
The Tories must ask why they failed (Michael Portillo, October 3 2010, Financial Times)
In the fringe meetings and bars of Birmingham rival explanations of what went wrong will be offered. The right will blame Cameron’s milk-and-water new Conservatism. He was, they will say, too like Tony Blair after that fashion had passed, and the economic crisis demanded muscular policies to distinguish the party from Labour more sharply. Well, all the evidence suggests otherwise. Robust rightwing manifestos led the party to massacres in 2001 and 2005. From the moment George Osborne promised austerity at last year’s conference the party’s poll ratings were shaky.Perhaps the Tories should relax. It could be that they didn’t win simply because the recession posed an awkward dilemma for them. Before the election they hopped uncomfortably between hinting at cuts and offering unconvincing reassurance. Mr Cameron looked a hesitant leader of the opposition, but is now a decisive prime minister. Surely, many of the public’s doubts about him have been resolved. He can no longer be harmed by cries of “toff” and does not now look like a flip-flopper.
But it is unlikely that his mind will be set at rest by that account. Another reason for the disappointing election result suggests itself. Perhaps two-thirds of the country still found the idea of voting Tory repellent. He must fear the brand is still toxic. Evidently, the coalition is finding it easier to announce unpalatable economic remedies than a purely Tory administration would.
My guess is that Mr Cameron is happier leading a coalition than a Tory government because he can pose as a figure above party rather than as a re-incarnation of the Iron Lady. Even “savage” cuts are less unpopular if they don’t also attract the adjective “Thatcherite”. Five years of coalition will give him the opportunity to launder the Conservative brand more thoroughly than he could in opposition and more deeply than he could were his party alone responsible for the economic squeeze.
None of this is comfortable for those on the Tory right who, on that analysis, are what stands between their party and electoral success.
W ran against congressional Republicans for similar reasons and the next presidential nominee of the GOP will, likewise, distance himself from the Tea Party.
