October 21, 2010

...AND REDDER...:

GOP Is Poised to Reap a Redistricting Bonus (PETER A. BROWN, 10/20/10, WSJ)

Here's a state-by-state look that shows the GOP advantage, starting with the gainers:

• Texas, which gains four congressional seats, is the biggest GOP prize. Republican Gov. Rick Perry's high-single-digit/low-double-digit lead over Democrat Bill White in a variety of polls is smaller than many anticipated. But a Perry loss would be an enormous surprise in this heavily anti-incumbent, GOP-leaning year, even if he has already been governor for 10 years. The best Democratic hope might be picking up a net two seats to take control of the state's House, where the GOP now holds a 76-73 edge. Otherwise, the Lone Star State will be a Republican mapmaker's dream.

• Florida picks up two congressional seats, and Republicans already have 76-44 and 26-13 majorities in the state House and Senate, respectively. Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink are locked in a virtual dead heat, with late polls showing one, then the other, in the lead. If Mr. Scott wins, Florida, like Texas, is the kind of place where the GOP pickup in the U.S. House might be larger than just the number of new seats. Democrats need Ms. Sink to win to get a seat at the table.

• In Georgia, Republican Nathan Deal appears to be pulling away from former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes with five public surveys in the past month reporting leads of four to 11 points. Republicans also have majorities of 34-22 and 105-74 in Georgia's Senate and House, respectively.

• Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer is in even better shape than Mr. Deal. She holds a solid double-digit lead over Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard and both legislative chambers are 60% Republican.

• In South Carolina, Republican Nikki Haley has a five-point lead over Democrat Vincent Sheheen in one gubernatorial poll, and two points in a Democratic survey Wednesday, but margins of 10 and 17 points in two other recent polls. The GOP also enjoys a 27-19 edge in the Senate and a 72-52 House majority.

• Nevada's legislative chambers both are controlled by Democrats, but the party's candidate for governor, Roy Reid—son of the U.S. Senate majority leader—trails by double digits in a variety of polls to Republican Brian Sandoval.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 21, 2010 6:24 AM
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