April 12, 2010

THE REALLY SCARY THING FOR DEMOCRATS (AND THE COUNTRY)...:

1994 Republican Rout Is Casting Shadow in 2010 (ADAM NAGOURNEY and MARJORIE CONNELLY, 4/12/10, NY Times)

For Democrats, the biggest obstacle appears to be that they are once again working in the kind of environment that has historically proved toxic to the party in power. Mr. Obama’s favorability ratings, like Mr. Clinton’s in 1994, have slipped below 50 percent, almost invariably a bad harbinger for the party in power in midterm elections. Congress and the Democratic Party are today extremely unpopular, as they were in 1994.

“Obama has done the same kind of overreach that Clinton did back then with the tax increases and the crime bill,” said Joe Gaylord, the Gingrich adviser who directed the 1994 takeover strategy, and who is now advising Mr. Gingrich on a potential presidential run.

“I was just looking at some survey data this morning, and in every area now — from health care to education to balancing the budget to foreign policy — the Republicans have a lead over Democrats, policywise,” Mr. Gaylord said. “That makes it very much like 1994.”

And in some ways, Republicans seem even better positioned than they were in 1994. Republican voters appear highly energized by the health care bill, and that kind of voter interest typically results in significant turnout in a midterm election.


Conflicting Signs for Midterm Elections (JOHN HARWOOD, 4/11/10, NY Times)
As if Republicans did not have enough cause for optimism this year, the pollster Neil Newhouse offers this lesson from history: Since John F. Kennedy occupied the White House, presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent have seen their parties lose an average of 41 House seats in midterm elections.

This year, a gain that large would return the House to Republican control. President Obama’s most recent Gallup Poll rating: 45 percent.

There’s more. Of Mr. Obama’s last nine elected predecessors, none saw his approval ratings rise between January and October of his first midterm election year.


...is that these have been a relatively eventless 16 months and they still screwed everything up. Sure, they might rise to a challenge, but there's no evidence this Administration is capable of doing so, being run by legislators not leaders.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 12, 2010 5:56 AM
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