POLITICS IS ALWAYS CYCLICAL, BUT YOU BETTER SUCCEED WHEN THE CYCLE TURNS YOUR WAY:

Political pendulum in Michigan swings away from the Democrats (Chris Cillizza, 4/12/10, Washington Post)

What's the matter with Michigan?

The Wolverine State shifted heavily toward Democrats over the past decade -- Sen. Debbie Stabenow unseated a Republican incumbent in 2000, and Gov. Jennifer Granholm was elected two years later, a victory that turned her into something of a national celebrity. Sen. John F. Kerry carried Michigan by three percentage points in 2004 in his unsuccessful presidential bid, and four years later Sen. Barack Obama won it by 16 points on the way to the White House.

Of late, however, the pendulum appears to be swinging back quickly to Republicans -- the latest example being Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak's retirement last week from a district covering the state's north that Obama barely won two years ago and will be at the top of GOP wish lists this fall. (In the wake of Stupak's announcement, political handicapper Charlie Cook moved the race from "solid Democrat" to "tossup.") [...]

While the political shift in Michigan is particularly striking, the struggling economies of other Midwestern states, including Ohio and Illinois, where unemployment rates are around 11 percent, are also jeopardizing Democratic officeholders in areas where the party has made significant gains in recent years.

Those electoral difficulties heading into the midterm elections have some Democratic operatives fretting about what it will all mean for Obama when he stands for reelection in 2012. "I look at all these states like Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania through the prism of the 2012 Obama reelection," said one senior Democratic strategist who has done work in the Wolverine State. "These are run-ups for that race."