February 24, 2009


Closed Door Politics (Richard Nadler, 2.24.09, American Spectator)

In the face of such obvious losses, what's an immigration hawk to do? Writing for the Center for Immigration Reform, James Gimpel, professor of Politics at the University of Maryland, provides an answer: disclaim all responsibility. In Latino Voting in the 2008 Election, he uses the gigantic Edison-Mitofsky exit polls of 2004 and 2008 to make two principle points: first, that Latino voting patterns do not differ noticeably from national trends; and second, that the immigration issue played a negligible role in the election. He writes: "Latino voters just aren't that different from other voters in the national electorate. Their support for Republicans rises or falls when support for GOP candidates rises among the broader electorate."

There is a major problem with Professor Gimpel's assertion: the evidence he adduces in its defense disproves it. John McCain underperformed George W. Bush by 5 percent. The Edison-Mitofsky presidential data show McCain underperforming Bush among Latinos by 13 percent. The same data set shows the Republican share of the Latino congressional vote falling even more precipitously: from 44% in 2004 to 29% in 2008 -- a 15% drop.

When a major demographic group registers a shift of 30 votes-per-hundred cast over a single presidential cycle, it certainly renders itself "different from other voters." Such a result represents not a national trend, but a massacre.

Sure, the nativists are shrinking the Party, but they're making it purer....

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Posted by Orrin Judd at February 24, 2009 8:26 AM
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