November 4, 2008


Multiple Factors Pushed Voters to Obama (Alec MacGillis and Jon Cohen, 11/04/08, Washington Post)

[H]e appeared to have benefited from deep dissatisfaction with the Republican brand, with 31 percent of voters in tonight's preliminary exit poll results describing themselves as Republicans, compared with 40 percent who identified themselves as Democrats. Four years ago, the numbers were equal.

The partisan shift away from the Republicans did not appear to signify an ideological shift toward the left. The proportion of voters describing themselves as liberal, moderate and conservative stayed roughly the same compared with four years ago. The proportion of voters who said they thought the government should do more was higher than in 2004; nonetheless, more than 40 percent thought government should not be more active.

But, in what appeared to be a crucial loss for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), voters almost across the board fled from Bush's winning coalition in 2004. Two in 10 conservatives nationally backed Obama, according to the exit polls, putting him on course to match Bill Clinton's 1996 performance among those voters. .

The final Hail Mary should have been flipping the ticket.

Exit Polls: Changing faces of U.S.A (CNN's Joe Von Kanel and Hal Quinley of Yankelovich, 11/04/08, CNN)

In the exit polls reported thus far tonight, 53 percent of whites say they voted for McCain while 43 percent of whites voted for Obama.

Obama, however, has a dramatic edge among African-Americans (96 percent), Latinos (67 percent ) and Asians (63 percent). Significantly, America's non-white vote is increasing as a proportion of the entire electorate. In the 1992 presidential election, whites made up 87 percent of all voters. This proportion fell to 83 percent in 1996; to 81 percent in 2000 and 77 percent in 2004. So far in today's exit polling, whites make up 75 percent of the electorate. Projected demographic trends indicate that the proportion of non-white voters, particularly Hispanics, will increase further in the future.

W was on the verge of making the GOP the majority party among Latinos but the opposition to immigration reform and Jeb not running were killers.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 4, 2008 11:51 PM
blog comments powered by Disqus