Down 11% on Bush's decision to send just a high-level OBSERVER to this weekend's chat with the Iranians. If events move rapidly towards peaceful resolution, it's Katie-bar-the-door.

Down 11% on Bush's decision to send just a high-level OBSERVER to this weekend's chat with the Iranians.

So, ghostcat, the decision that meant a drop from 12% to 8% in the Intrade "strike on Iran" contract is more significant than Bush's decision that meant an increase in 20% in the Intrade "offshore drilling allowed" contract; i.e., the lifting of the executive branch ban?

The drop started during his press conference announcing the ban lift; I don't believe that the envoy news came out until later.

It's definitely due to lifting the ban on off-shore drilling. Of course we'll need Congress to move this forward. I think we'll see a stall on the falling prices and then a slight rise if Congress drags its feet.

If Obama is elected the prices will most definitely begin their climb again. But I'm not sure what would happen with McCain's election. The bottom line though is that a lot of Congressmen will lose their jobs in the next election cycle if drilling doesn't begin by next year.

OPEC and the oil investors will derail any initiative by us to reduce our dependence on their oil ... and it will work.

Just saying we'll start drilling was enough to get a reaction. The stockmarket may be irrational, but market forces are absolute. If oil continues down, that will be the time for us to increase fuel taxes. But we won't; the cycles will continue and OPEC will smile as they walk to the banks they will own.