June 19, 2008

GOPHER 50:

Source: McCain Vice President Search Now Focuses on Pawlenty (James Pethokoukis, 6/19/08, US News)

Internal McCain polls show that adding Pawlenty, 47, to the ticket would help McCain win not only Minnesota but also the neighboring state of Wisconsin. Both are close swing states. In 2004, John Kerry beat President Bush by 3.48 percentage points in Minnesota and 0.38 percentage point in Wisconsin. In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by 2.4 points in Minnesota and 0.22 in Wisconsin.

This all validates my theory that Team McCain is pursuing a "Big 10" victory strategy, trying to win the states from the college football conference, especially Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.


He needs someone young enough to succeed him, with executive experience, who's in good with the religious, and can tip the Blue states W couldn't quite win. Mr. Pawlenty fills the bill (assuming Jeb's serious about not running a national campaign yet).

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 19, 2008 1:09 PM

I still think McCain will need to be convinced not to go with his gut and pick Lieberman.

Wisconsin will be a tough win since Madison turnout will be eleventy billion percent.

Posted by: b at June 19, 2008 1:45 PM

OJ,

Even you must surely realize by now that the defeat of Hillary! ended all chances that Jeb ever had of becoming President. The GOP will not put up with another Bush, even for lower offices; therefore, George Prescott, Noelle, and Barbara are going to have to settle for the private sector.

I must say, though, that a Barack Obama win would make it a lot easier for any of South Carolina's top GOP elected officials (Lindsey Graham, Jim DeMint, and Gov. Mark Sanford) to run for the job in 4 years.

Posted by: Brad S at June 19, 2008 3:18 PM

We need Pawlenty and his veto pen to stay in MN. He's the only person standing between the Dem-dominated state legislature and Michigan-style tax increaes.

Posted by: Gideon7 at June 19, 2008 3:21 PM

The GOP wasn't going to put up with the Bush family anymore after 1992. How did that work out?

The GOP rank and file still like President Bush. The Beltway and Internet conservatives don't speak for the majority.

Jeb's son George P. will be governor of Texas within 10 years. After that, who knows.

Posted by: Bob at June 19, 2008 3:47 PM

Probably not Jeb Bush (that particular individual) but an individual like him. George P. could have a chance as he has enough time for these years to fall into their proper perspective, and for the personal reactions to die down. That would take about sixteen years, and Jeb does not have that time, I think.

Bob is right that the traditional and new media pundits do not speak for the majority - if they did a "true conservative" would be the nominee and not John McCain.

Posted by: Mikey at June 19, 2008 4:19 PM

George P's too busy, training for a Naval Intel billet, to worry about things like that.

Posted by: narciso at June 19, 2008 6:20 PM

Agreed, Mikey, we'd have someone like Ron Paul or Duncan Hunter or Mitt Romney, utterly unelectable. Thank God these carny barkers have very little influence (outside of the statistically insignificant pack of fanboy dittoheads)!

Posted by: Jorge Curioso at June 19, 2008 7:29 PM

Pawlenty-Jeb 2012.

Posted by: ic at June 20, 2008 1:09 AM

Hillary took off after she became Bill.

Posted by: oj at June 20, 2008 5:03 AM

She did not become Bill, she took the same kind of stance. She remained Hillary Clinton, and that didn't help her. Same with Jeb - he may have the right positions, but his name remains Jeb Bush, and that is not going to help him much right now. There is too much passion associated with the name.

Posted by: Mikey at June 20, 2008 8:39 AM

In two-three years, who knows how the Bush brand will be.

Bad brand or not, Jeb would be the front runner among GOP voters.

I did not know about George P.'s navy reserve training. Good for him. I don't see how this hurts my prediction. If anything, a year or 2 on active but safe Navy duty will help it.

Posted by: Bob at June 20, 2008 9:48 AM

No, she actually became Bill. By the end of the race she was the male candidate.

Posted by: oj at June 20, 2008 6:30 PM
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