June 17, 2008

ALL THAT REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED IS THE SIZE OF MAVERICK'S VICTORY:

Close Race: McCain Stays in Range Amid Challenges for Obama (GARY LANGER, June 17, 2008, ABC News)

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll underscores the conundrum of the 2008 presidential election: If everything is so good for Barack Obama, why isn't everything so good for Barack Obama? [...]

Among all Americans, Obama leads by a fairly narrow 6 points; among those most likely to vote -- an estimate that it's admittedly early to make -- the two are locked in a dead heat. [...]

Obama's advantage vs. McCain is about the same as in an ABC/Post poll last month -- no bounce from Obama's victory in the long-fought Democratic nomination campaign.

One of the challenges for Obama in terms of likely voters is the fact that his support relies heavily on young adults, whose turnout on Election Day is far less reliable than their elders'. [...]

Obama, more broadly, also faces significant unease with his resume, with just half of Americans, 50 percent, saying he's experienced enough to serve as president. Forty-six percent think that's not so, a large number to lose on the basic question of qualifications.

Also, in the two most reliable swing voter groups in presidential elections, Obama and McCain run evenly among independents, and McCain leads by 14 points among white Catholics.


Poll Finds Independent Voters Split Between McCain, Obama (Dan Balz and Jon Cohen, 6/17/08, Washington Post)
At this point four years ago, Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry held identical leads over President Bush among all adults and among registered voters.

Then the GOP and the media explained that Kerry wasn't the anti-Dean but just like Howard Dean. For the next four months they'll explain that Senator Obama too is just a stock Northern liberal. It's not a winnable race for the Democrats.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 17, 2008 7:43 AM

True but given the GOP and McCain's penchant for blowing wins and the near deity status that Obama has among the MSM this will be a close GOP win at best or a Dem blowout.

Posted by: AWW at June 17, 2008 11:02 AM

The GOP hasn't blown a win since '48.

Posted by: oj at June 17, 2008 12:18 PM

1992 doesn't count as a blown win?

Posted by: Brandon at June 17, 2008 4:28 PM

Not only wasn't it a blowout, but GHWB only lost because of Perot. The GOP didn't blow it.

Posted by: oj at June 17, 2008 7:58 PM

1992 is ancient history. Winning ugly is still winning (2000) and the MSM couldn't get Lurch into the Oval Office under more favorable conditions than Obama faces (2004).

Posted by: Chris B at June 18, 2008 8:04 AM
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