May 23, 2008


GOP strategists mull McCain ‘blowout’ (DAVID PAUL KUHN | 5/23/08, Politico)

[T]he contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes.

By post-war election standards, that margin is unusually small. Yet it’s considerably larger than either Bush’s 2004 victory or his five-electoral-vote win in 2000.

“A win by 40 or 50 electoral votes would be an astonishing upset, just a watershed event with all the issues that were stacked against him from the very beginning,” said David Woodard, a Republican pollster and Clemson University political science professor. “But it could happen. I know this seems like wishful thinking by Republicans. I’m thinking that Republicans could win by 40 electoral votes. But I dare not say it,” he added. “Certainly what is possible could come to pass.”

A top strategist with the Republican National Committee, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, explained that by his own examination, “we’re actually sitting pretty well in most states.”

“There are a lot of scenarios that look good for McCain, and I almost would go so far to say that there are a lot more scenarios [than for Obama],” the strategist added. “I don’t think anybody over here wants to let themselves get too excited about it. It is an eternity between now and November. But McCain looks a lot stronger than our prospects as a party.” [...]

Among the 10 strategists interviewed by Politico for this story, there was near-uniform belief that had any other Republican been nominated, the party’s prospects in November would be nil.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 23, 2008 5:53 PM

Wait until the MSM, done with the Clinton-Obama slugfest, turns on McCain and goes back to proclaiming Obama the second coming. This thing is far from over.

Posted by: AWW at May 23, 2008 6:47 PM

I don't see it. Obama is up 9 in latest OH poll. Gas prices are high so people are unable to believe the truth that the economy is OK. The Republicans are clueless in congress.

Posted by: JAB at May 23, 2008 7:43 PM

Yes, recall what press bias did to Nixon, Reagan, Bush and Bush

Posted by: oj at May 23, 2008 8:30 PM

As an aside:

David Woodard, a Republican pollster and Clemson University political science professor...

How many of those are out there, a Republican in a political science department at a major university?

Posted by: pchuck at May 24, 2008 10:07 AM