May 30, 2008

AT OBAMA'S HIGH WATER MARK:

A New Electoral Map: In the General Election, McCain Leads in Electoral Votes Against Both Clinton and Obama (Michael Barone, 5/30/08, US News)

National elections are decided not by popular vote but by electoral votes. So I decided to take a look at all the statewide polls, conveniently gathered by Pollster.com, that have been conducted starting in February. That seemed to be the best time to start, since McCain effectively clinched the Republican nomination on Super Tuesday, February 5 (though Mike Huckabee continued campaigning until March 4) and Obama became considerably better known after his victories in January and on Super Tuesday. [...]

I will leave it to the Clinton and Obama campaigns (and to commenters) to make the case that one Democrat or the other is stronger overall against McCain. Overall, these poll results show McCain leading Obama by 281 to 257 electoral votes and McCain leading Clinton by 277 to 261 electoral votes.


Any Democrat needs to be ahead by double digits at this point in the cycle, before anyone knows their real views and record.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 30, 2008 3:58 PM
Comments

Michael Barone is always worth reading; and only a fool dismisses his work. Dad took US News & World Report when I was in high school, and the first place I would turn would be his column. He was more right than wrong, which you couldn't say about most pundits then (and now).

Posted by: Mikey at May 30, 2008 6:21 PM
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