May 10, 2008

50-0 FILES:

West Virginia could spell trouble for Obama: Scant support among white working-class Democrats, especially men, could dog him into November. (Stephen Braun, 5/10/08, Los Angeles Times)

In Hardy County, Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2 to 1. But there is little enthusiasm for Barack Obama in this mountainside enclave, a portent of trouble for the Illinois senator in next week's West Virginia primary and the general election beyond.

Nearly 97% white, the county is as conflicted as any rural and working-class Democratic bastion as it struggles to adjust to the likely prospect of the party nominating its first African American presidential candidate.

Obama may have emerged from his double-digit victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton in North Carolina and his razor-thin loss in Indiana on Tuesday with a virtual lock on the Democratic nomination. But his performance did little to reassure political leaders here concerned by his sagging numbers among once-loyal white Democrats, who have steadily abandoned their party over the last several presidential elections.

"I'm not yet convinced that Barack Obama is more substance than fluff," said Clyde M. See Jr., a former Democratic speaker of the West Virginia House of Delegates and two-time gubernatorial candidate who heads a small law practice in Moorefield, the county seat. "He's a fine speaker, mind you, but I'm still not sure he's got the right stuff to win the general election."

How many states can you really expect to win when all you have is Brights and blacks?

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 10, 2008 9:41 AM

Obama has a lock on Washington, DC (I know, it's not a state). He'll most likely carry Maryland and Illinos.

Posted by: sam at May 10, 2008 10:58 AM

Obama will win the Presidency, garnering about 300 electoral votes. It's been awhile since the Left has had a candidate that has been as palatable to the public as he is. Combine that with a McCain who doesn't pay proper tribute to his base, and combine that with a Right that wants to sit out the next 4 years....

And you have 178 days until GOP Doomsday.

Posted by: Brad S at May 10, 2008 11:35 AM

And you have racist Dems who will never vote for a black.

BTW, I should have included HI in the list of states that Obama will win.

Posted by: sam at May 10, 2008 11:50 AM

There's a radical fringe that wants to sit out '08, but they are greatly over-represented on the internet. No Dem presidential candidate since Carter has received at least 50% of the vote. How can Obama do better than the other recent Dems when he'll lose working class whites and a large number of Hispanics? All he has are the base - blacks and liberal yuppies. He can't win in Ohio, Florida and the western battleground states and will have to defend against McCain in traditional Dem states like Oregon, Washington and Pennsylvania. He's more likely to take a severe beating than win by a small margin.

Posted by: Patrick H at May 10, 2008 11:56 AM

The Right that would sit out will turn out just to vote against "the colored."

Posted by: oj at May 10, 2008 1:14 PM

The guy needs to play up his honky background more. He could regale us with tales of how electing him President will finally overcome his white half's desire to keep his black half down.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at May 10, 2008 2:03 PM

Hillary gets at least 65% in WV; the problem with Obama in WV is not all attributable to racism--as the media will attempt to portray it.

It's also because he's "foreign"--his paternal ancestry, his upbringing in exotic places, his education in the Ivies, his life on the South Side--all very very exotic (and suspicious) to the average WVian. "Foreign" to Appalachians is not a good thing; they mistrust it unless you try to explain yourself to them. Obama in his arrogance is not even going to try.

The Dems cant win the kind of ordinary white folks they need to win without a Jacksonian; so who do they pick?

Posted by: cornetofhorse at May 10, 2008 7:06 PM

How soon until no non-hispanic can win the White House?

Seriously, this talk of racism and Jacksonians and all is fascinating and all.... but aren't the demographics quickly (very very quickly) rendering it all moot?

Posted by: Benny at May 10, 2008 7:18 PM

oj: This is about saving the babies from being eliminated as a "punishment," keeping our guns and winning the GWOT.

Do you think I'm worried about winning ugly?

Posted by: Lou Gots at May 10, 2008 7:21 PM

The Dems fretted for years that they didn't win WV and TN (and a few others) in 2000 (and again in 2004). But now the Mountain State is racist because Obama is going to get just 38%? Donna Brazile is falling off her rocker.

Maybe Obama should just buy the primary, like Kennedy did in 1960.

Posted by: jim hamlen at May 10, 2008 9:16 PM

Certainly no party that gets as few Hispanic votes as the GOP does black would be able to win. GOP racism or Democrat secularism could swing Latino allegiance.

Posted by: oj at May 10, 2008 9:37 PM

As long as the president has to be an American, he can be pink with purple poka dots for all I care.

I saw these graphs on entrepreneurial activity by race linked on Mark Perry's site the other day. Maybe the U.S. should set up program in which it exchanges 10 whiny baby boomers for every hispanic immigrant.

Entrepreneurial Activity by Race

Entrepreneurial Activity by Nativity

Posted by: djs at May 10, 2008 11:54 PM

Oh, I'm not complaining. Just pointing out something intersting to me...

Posted by: Benny at May 11, 2008 1:23 AM