April 23, 2008

MY MATH ISN'T SO GOOD...:

Signs Indicate That Duels May Be Hurting Party (Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta, 4/23/08, Washington Post)

Nearly seven in 10 voters said Clinton has attacked Obama unfairly, and half said the same of Obama's campaign against Clinton. Those are the highest numbers saying the candidates have unjustly characterized each other since before Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5, according to network exit polls conducted with voters as they left polling places.

Barely more than a third of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania said they would be happy with Obama atop the Democratic ticket; less than half of those backing Obama said they would be satisfied with Clinton as the one leading the challenge of Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the presumed GOP nominee.

Clinton voters also appear especially likely to say they will abandon the party if their candidate is not the nominee. Fifty-three percent of those voting for her yesterday said they would cast a ballot for Obama in a hypothetical November matchup against McCain. More than a quarter said they would vote for the Republican, and about two in 10 said they would not vote at all.


...so can someone show me how you can run the numbers and end up with a President Obama when he can't win any state that W won and is going to have trouble defending places like PA, WI, MN, and maybe even CA?

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 23, 2008 7:25 AM
Comments

Because no one wants a 3rd Bush term?

It is McCain's to lose, but thinking it will be easy is the worst mistake one can make.

If the McCain people allow the Dems to call this a referendum on "Bush's third term," then it's back to the old map with Ohio out the window.

Posted by: Bruno at April 23, 2008 7:43 AM

Audacity of Hope? (As in it's an audacious strategy, but the democrats need to hope that the voters are simpletons).

Posted by: mike m at April 23, 2008 7:49 AM

Bruno,

The Dems can't credibly do that until they have a certain nominee, and their attempts at doing so will look rather pathetic and stupid.

HOWEVER, even though the calendar will be quite short by the time their nominee is set (the RNC convention is the week after the DNC convention, with Labor Day weekend in between), the Dems can most certainly make up quick ground. And that will be a test that may catch the McCain camp flat-footed.

My suggestion: McCain better call in all his chits (with both media and GOP) right now, and not wait until after about September 5.

Posted by: Brad S at April 23, 2008 8:07 AM

No one wanted a third Reagan term either, except that even GHWB managed to win one in a landslide. It's not going to be a competitive race.

Posted by: oj at April 23, 2008 8:24 AM

For a whole host of reasons, Obama may very well not make it to the general election, (with not the least being he is a wimp and is likely to impload), leaving Hillary with incredible momentum and some new easily spun by the media american superstar status as a no quit tough gal.

She could come out of this with rock star status previously owned by Obama. Losing some black vote could easily be made up by gaining blue collar whites and in places like Ohio and PA would end it for McCain.

In addition, sandbanging Obama for future elections after his image can be more completely formed (and cleansed) makes sense.

I think the new front runner is Hillary. Look for Obama to be pulled.

Posted by: Perry at April 23, 2008 8:55 AM

And deviating from Reagan (and a curious loss of will at some point) was part of the reason he lost in 1992.

Posted by: Jorge Curioso at April 23, 2008 10:15 AM

It would seem to me that real, actual duels may be what the Democrats need right now. It would stop a lot of the fussing anyway.

Posted by: Mikey [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 23, 2008 1:09 PM

What could have been more Reaganesque than his tax hike? He lost because another candidate ran on the Right.

Posted by: oj at April 23, 2008 2:38 PM

Every dollar that the left spends on "McCain=Bush" is a dollar flushed down the toilet. The MSM has done a great job over the last 9 years selling the public on Maverick. And they're not going to turn on him now, despite the oft-repeated fears many have, because as a general rule they're in total awe of his life story.

The most lasting impact of the coming McCain landslide will be to cement blacks into the Democrat party for at least another generation because the Clintons & their ilk will blame it all on racism.

Posted by: b at April 23, 2008 4:11 PM

OJ:

He believed in realpolitik and acted like it, Reagan didn't.

Like P.J. O'Rourke once said, he treated the fall of Communism like it was a new dance craze or something.

Posted by: Matt Murphy at April 25, 2008 12:01 AM

Reagan acted like it, just didn't talk like it.

Posted by: oj at April 25, 2008 6:35 AM
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