LIKE THE LAST NON-RECESSION?:

Good news about the US labor market: Despite recent job cuts, employment trends suggest a mild recession. (John A. Challenger, April 10, 2008, CS Monitor)

If we are following the pattern of the 2001 recession, the recent job losses are an ominous sign. At the onset of the last recession in March 2001, job losses began mounting immediately, eventually reaching 2.7 million before payrolls began growing with consistency in September 2003.

However, if we are following that pattern, then there is reason to believe that this will be a mild recession. After three months of negative job growth, the economy has seen a net loss of 232,000 jobs, far fewer than the 355,000 lost between March 2001 and May 2001, the first three months of the last recession, which was considered mild by historical standards. Even at its worst point, that recession saw unemployment peak at 6.3 percent, still relatively low compared with previous recessions.

There is zero chance that when the data is all finally in the 2001 slowdown will be classed a recession, even 1991 is unlikely to remain one.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 13, 2008 7:30 AM