April 27, 2008

ALL DEFENSE, ALL THE TIME:

Deepening Democratic Dilemma (Robert Novak, 4/24/08, Real Clear Politics)

Prominent Democrats only whisper when they compare Obama, the first African-American with a serious chance to be president, with what happened to Los Angeles' black Mayor Tom Bradley a quarter of a century ago. Exit polls in 1982 showed Bradley ahead for governor of California, but he actually lost to Republican George Deukmejian. Pollster John Zogby (who correctly predicted Clinton's double-digit win Tuesday) said what practicing Democrats would not. "I think voters face-to-face are not willing to say they would oppose an African-American candidate," Zogby told me.

If there really is a Bradley Effect in 2008, Zogby sees November peril ahead for Obama in blue states. John McCain is a potential winner not only in Pennsylvania but also Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and can retain Ohio.


And, most importantly, California.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 27, 2008 8:29 AM
Comments

Which is why the first black President needs to be a Republican. Only Nixon could go to China.

There's no real way to tell (by results) the difference between those voting because of unspoken racism and those voting against him because he's a big time liberal. Whatever those results may be, they will be skewed in whatever direction people need to skew it to support their own ideology.

Posted by: Andrew X at April 27, 2008 10:31 AM

If Obama is the nominee, the exit polls around 4:30 PM on election day are going to be very interesting. Perhaps Rush will direct Operation Chaos to tell every media person that "I voted for Barack Obama, my hero!"

But it might give Hannity (and Mark Levin) a stroke.

Posted by: ratbert at April 27, 2008 8:40 PM
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