March 26, 2008

YEAH, BUT IF THE GENERAL ELECTION WERE A DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS HE'D BE A LOCK FOR PRESIDENT:

How Bad is it For Obama in Pennsylvania? (G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young, 3/26/08, Real Clear Politics)

Just how bad is documented by some key findings from a series of polls, including the Franklin and Marshal College Poll, all released recently. Almost none of the results bode well for Obama. Across the board Clinton is winning and winning big. She has decisively stopped Obama's earlier momentum in Pennsylvania--and seems set for a romp.

Statewide among Democrats, Clinton holds a lead that ranges from 16 to 26 points. The Real Clear Politics consensus estimate is roughly 16 points. She is winning every major region of the state except Philadelphia, while Obama has actually slipped slightly with blacks and more substantially with younger voters--two demographics that are critical backstops for him in the contest. He has also lost support with other key constituencies including white males and evangelicals. [...]

Appeal among Key Groups of Likely Voters: Clinton leads among women (57% to 29%), whites (57% to 29%), ages 55 and older (55% to 29%), union member households (67% to 26%), and Born Again Christians (45% to 38%). She also leads among Catholics (26 points) and Protestants (23 points). Obama has the clear edge only among non-whites (76% to 12%). Obama and Clinton are tied or virtually tied (within sampling error) among younger, college-educated, and male voters. (Source: Franklin & Marshall College Poll)

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 26, 2008 8:07 AM
Comments

Substitute "McCain" for Clinton and you've got your general election numbers in PA.

Posted by: curt at March 26, 2008 1:04 PM

Substitute "McCain" for "Clinton" and you've got your general election numbers in PA.

Posted by: curt at March 26, 2008 1:05 PM
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