March 4, 2008

MEANWHILE...:

...both OH and TX are uncalled on the Democrat side. The natural inclination, should Senator Obama lose both, will be to attribute it entirely to personalities. He finally received some scrutiny this past weak and Hillary finally went on the attack. But to some degree there's an impersonal factor at work here too. There is some history of primary voters getting buyer's remorse once their party's nominee seems apparent and of their voting for just about any serious alternative. Consider that in 1976 both Ford and Carter lost late primaries, Ted Kennedy closed strong in 1980, Gary Hart won several late races in '84 (including the last in CA), and even Bill Clinton struggled to put away Jerry Brown and the hapless field he faced in '92. Mr. Obama may well just be at the similar point in this campaign where the party hesitates over finality.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 4, 2008 10:02 PM
Comments

I don't think it's buyers' remorse. Rather it was predictable. Hillary has done well in big states, and outside of the south especially. She does well among the old blue collar crowd (Ohio), and among hispanics (Texas), whom she apparently won, once again, handily.

All of which will give her strong arguments at a brokered convention. She'll say Obama only won caucuses of the party faithful as well as some small very liberal states the Dems will hold no matter who the nominee is, and the south, where neither she nor Obama have much of a chance in the general.

Can't believe btw that I'm rooting for her tonight, particularly since she has the better shot of beating Maverick, but I've come to detest Obama and his crew so much and don't want him this close to the presidency.

Posted by: Jim in Chicago at March 4, 2008 10:45 PM

The black vote in Philadelphia has been decisive in PA for the Dems in the past....can it happen in a primary? Obama probably cannot win the state in the fall (as Ed Rendell mused a few weeks ago), but can he beat Hillary on April 22?

Posted by: ratbert at March 4, 2008 10:57 PM

CNN just called OH for Hillary. With 56% in, she has a 18-point lead.

We in Denver are looking forward to the foodfight.

Posted by: Brad S at March 4, 2008 11:08 PM

I'm still betting on Hillary to win the nomination. That 3 AM call was a tipping point.

Too bad it was the best McCain ad one could provide. Hillary will likely be the nominee.

This comforts me. Hillary is probably the stronger of the 2 for various reasons, but if Obama won, we would have been open to the crap shoot effect.

The higher probablity is that he would have lost (and lost big), but his chances of winning (OJs meanderings notwithstanding), while small, are predicated upon the unleashing the most stupid, vaccuous idiots in the nation upon us.

I'll take my chances with Hillary over Obama's cult oriented zombies anyday.

Posted by: Bruno at March 4, 2008 11:39 PM

Hillary will probably win OH by over 200,000 votes. PA is even better territory for her 'message' (and her husband's).

I wonder what John Lewis is thinking tonight?

As for Obama, his presser yesterday (in which he fled after taking just 8 questions) is damning. Hillary is no better in talking with the press (has she ever stuck around to be asked a direct question about Norm Hsu?), but she doesn't run off holding her skirt the way Barack H. did. What a joke.

The real battle is going to be for the MI and FL 'delegates'. Hillary will fight for them to be seated, which is going to rip the party apart. All the talking heads and long-faced comments from guys like Terry MacAuliffe, Carville and Begala, etc. won't cover up the Clinton smell of lust and grab. And what if Obama wins the NC primary in May? Hillary is a loser in the South, and it is surely a reasonable view that Obama could win a contested primary in FL, where the Hispanic vote is more Republican than in other states.

Posted by: jim hamlen at March 4, 2008 11:51 PM

Wait a minute. Which Democrat will be easiest to beat in the fall. That's the only thing we should be thinking about. Time for Pennsylvanians to start raiding that Democrat primary.

Now Effendi Obama is a very dangerous person, but so dangerous that he should be more beatable. Gettin him nominated won't be easy. Pennsylvania Democrat pols (the Euro-American ones, anyway) are mostly going for Mrs. BJ, including Rendell, who is most formidable and a real possibility for VP.

Posted by: Lou Gots at March 5, 2008 4:59 AM

One can only hope that Obama somehow takes the Dem primary in PA, because he couldn't win the general even if he spent the next 8 months there. In fact, he'd barely touch 40%.

Posted by: curt at March 5, 2008 8:13 AM

Lou,

It's hard to say at this point which Democrat would be easier to beat in the fall. What is easy to say is that the Democrat Primary is going to get very ugly. The Clinton and Obama camps are going to do and say to each other things that would be impossible for the GOP to get away with. Such bitterness along racial/gender/economics/education lines is a godsend for the GOP. The icing on the cake will be the battle over delegates from Florida and Michigan. Howard Dean is truly the gift that keeps on giving.

Posted by: mike m at March 5, 2008 8:18 AM

The PA primary is closed, so if Republicans want to vote for BHO, they better switch registration now.

The talking heads were saying last night that Howard Dean has to 'fix' the MI and FL problems before the PA primary. Some of them even said another vote was inevitable. I doubt that - the Dems can't waste money on it, and the risk of an outright racial election in MI is just too great (with black Detroit against white union voters). And FL is no slam-dunk for Hillary.

The Dems are going to have to live with the super-delegates, and will probably die by them. As OJ has said, they cannot afford to cross the black vote. If Obama is smart, he will play the victim just like Bill Clinton did in 1998. Make Hillary pay for being a snotty white woman (and Bill for being a redneck racist).

I am especially looking forward to hearing Reverend Al and Brother Jesse attack Howard Dean, Bill and Hillary, and the other white pillars of the Democratic establishment. I can see it now, at the convention, with Dean playing the role of Richard Daley, and Sharpton playing Abe Ribicoff. Wow!

Posted by: jim hamlen at March 5, 2008 8:37 AM

Hillary has the highest negatives of any potential nominee since polling began. Barack can't carry Latinos or Catholics. They're both easy.

Posted by: oj at March 5, 2008 8:41 AM

Jim: Gov Crist (R-Fl) has offered to have the state pay for a revote. LOL

Posted by: Ibid at March 5, 2008 9:24 AM

LOL alternate definition = lots of luck. Money's tight and taxpayers here (in Florida) aren't going to pay for another election.

I've said all along that they'll kiss and makeup at the convention proving they can all get along and give us that best of all worlds, a Hillary/Obama ticket.

Scary thought is that it could be a winner.

Posted by: erp at March 5, 2008 10:13 AM
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