March 24, 2008

LUCK IS THE RESIDUE OF HISTORY:

Luckiest Man in the Race (Fred Barnes, 3/24/08, The Weekly Standard)

For McCain, the best may be yet to come. If Clinton manages a come-from-behind victory over Obama, that could produce the dream election for McCain, one in which the Democratic party fails to unify behind its presidential candidate. Given the eagerness of Democrats to capture the White House after eight Bush years, that may seem farfetched. It's not. It's a real possibility.

What if Obama prevails? He'll have been weakened by having had the "kitchen sink" thrown at him by the Clinton forces. With no significant ideological differences between Clinton and Obama, they've focused on his personal shortcomings: inexperience, habit of saying one thing while believing the opposite, unimpressive Senate record, lack of appeal to white working class and Hispanic voters.

The Clinton attacks have begun to transform the popular image of Obama from that of an inspirational leader above the grubby fray of party politics to that of a normal politician. This should largely spare McCain from criticizing Obama on personal grounds and free him to concentrate on Obama's leftwing political views.

Three scenarios are possible in the Democratic race.


Suppose that you fell asleep in 1999 and woke in January 2009 to be told that the GOP's Southwestern conservative candidate had defeated the Democrat's Northeastern liberal. Would you think any luck was required to achieve the result? this has been a thoroughly predictable race and seems set to remain that way.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 24, 2008 8:26 PM
Comments

Even the gyrations of the media and the pundits is thoroughly predictable.

Posted by: sam at March 24, 2008 9:22 PM

I don't think Chicago counts as Northeastern. It's Midwestern.

Posted by: Brandon at March 25, 2008 11:02 AM
« WHEN YOU HAVE NO PROMOTION BUDGET, REMEMBER RULE ONE...: | Main | LAND THAT WE LOVE: »