February 26, 2008


McCain would beat Obama and Clinton, poll says: A Times/Bloomberg poll finds McCain ahead of both Democrats in head-to-head matchups. Respondents give the Republican higher marks on handling Iraq and fighting terrorism. (Peter Wallsten, 2/27/08, Los Angeles Times)

Despite Democrats' excitement over the presidential nomination battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, both candidates would lose to presumptive Republican nominee John McCain if the general election were held today, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

The findings underscored the dramatic challenges facing Democrats as they hope to retake the White House during a time of war, with voters giving McCain far higher marks when it comes to experience, fighting terrorism and dealing with the situation in Iraq. [...]

Overall, McCain would beat Clinton 46% to 40% and Obama 44% to 42%. His lead over Obama is within the poll's three-point margin of error.

The Arizona senator also scored higher marks than Clinton or Obama for experience and strength. On the issue of "honesty and integrity," he beat Clinton and was tied by Obama. McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of all registered voters, including a plurality of Democrats.

Imagine how well he'd be doing if, as out Beltway betters assure us, the base didn't hate him?

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 26, 2008 8:30 PM

Too early for polls to mean anything right now. Just ask Carter, Gore, and Kerry who were ahead in the polls at this point.

Hillary and Obama are still slugging it out and it is getting nasty. When the Dems finally settle on one of them (which could be next week if Hillary loses Texas and Ohio) the MSM will be able to pump up the Dem and attack McCain, boosting the Dem.

I think McCain beats Clinton due to Clinton fatigue. I'm not yet sure about Obama as the desire for youth/change may trump experience, similar to Kennedy-Nixon in '60 and Clinton-Bush I in '92.

Posted by: AWW at February 26, 2008 11:38 PM

Which is why it'll be a blowout. Those three lost their leads despite the media efforts. Starting from behind is catastrophic.

Posted by: oj at February 27, 2008 12:18 AM

Kennedy ran to the right of Nixon on various issues. Clinton only won because he ran as a "New Democrat" and because of Perot. Obama has none of those advantages. McCain could have health problems or a "macaca moment," but barring that, I don't see how Obama's old-fashioned left-liberalism sells in November. I mean, opposing secret-ballot union elections? Comparable worth, for heaven's sake? If the Republicans can't knock things like that out of the park, they should just give up.

Posted by: PapayaSF at February 27, 2008 2:05 AM


Feb. 21 Fox News:

Obama 47%
McCain 43%

Feb. 25 Gallup/USA Today:
McCain 48%
Obama 47%

Feb. 25 CBS/NYT:
Obama 50%
McCain 38%

...polls are pretty meaningless right now.

Posted by: Daniel at February 27, 2008 2:35 AM

Straight "who are you voting for" polls aren't going to give you good predictions right now, but there's a sizable part of the country that has already made up its mind, so polls looking at that are going to give you useful information.

For example, Rasmussen just did a poll that indicates 43% of Americans have already made up their minds definitely not to vote for Obama. Only 33% say the same about McCain. They both pull 34% who say they will definitely vote for them.

I did some back of the envelope math, and I don't see any realistic way Obama makes up that gap, while McCain has a real chance of the landslide Orrin's predicting.

Posted by: Timothy at February 27, 2008 4:50 AM

What's unique in Daniel's other polls is Maverick's high approval/low disapproval for a pol who's been a national figure for over a decade.

Posted by: oj at February 27, 2008 7:36 AM

The Rasmussen poll has McCain leading Obama, FWIW.

However, given the glowing media coverage Obama has received (contrasted with the sparse criticism of his positions/record) and the President's low approval ratings, an argument could be made that no matter Obama's poll strength in Feb/March (when he will presumably become the presumptive nominee), he is at his high water mark and will only go down.

Posted by: AC at February 27, 2008 10:05 AM

Energy Independence Now!

No more Oil Wars!

Stop funding the terrorists!

Drill in Anwar.

Build more nuclear power plants

Use More coal.

Use more natural gas

Turn trash into energy

Double the efficiency of windmills and solar cells.

If France can do nuclear power so can we.

If Brazil can do biomass/ethanol power so can we.

If Australia can do LNG power so can we.

Domestically produced energy will end recession and spur the economy.

Posted by: poetryman69 at February 28, 2008 9:44 PM