LIKE 1986, BUT WITHOUT JOHN McNAMARA:

PECOTA Projected Standings are up, and PFM (Nate Silver, 2/16/08, Baseball Prospectus)

We’ve kept this a little under the radar, but the first version of the PECOTA projected standings are fired up and ready to go.

For the most part, these numbers conform pretty well to conventional wisdom. In the American League, you have five teams fighting for the four playoff slots, and it looks like the Tigers and Indians — whom we have dead-even at 89-73 — will fight the most compelling battle, as both the Red Sox and Yankees are just a hair ahead of them. And there’s really not anyone who’s all that close to breaking into that hegemony, although the Devil Rays — who we’re showing one game over .500 — could make things interesting if their young pitching pulls together. PECOTA’s also not buying the Mariners as contenders; we simply don’t think they’re going to score enough runs. [...]

And the Mets really might be the best team in baseball, regardless of what league they happen to play in.