February 7, 2008


Obama Advisers Foresee a Delegate Draw With Clinton (Catherine Dodge and Alex Tanzi, 2/07/08, Bloomberg)

Barack Obama's advisers are anticipating the possibility of a Democratic presidential race deadlocked past the last primary, and the outcome may hinge on a fight over whether delegations from Florida and Michigan get seats at the party's national convention in Denver.

One scenario prepared for the Illinois senator's campaign and released inadvertently yesterday with another document projects Obama will end up in June with 1,806 of the delegates who select the party's nominee to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton. That is short of the number needed to win the nomination.

The forecast doesn't include Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of delegates by the Democratic National Committee for holding early primaries. Clinton won both uncontested and is vowing to fight for those delegates -- which were slated to be a total of 366 -- to be seated when the nominating convention opens on Aug. 25.

Some moments in life provide such sheer joy that they make it all worthwhile: your marriage, the birth of your kids, the Sox beating the Yankees, Antonin Scalia deciding who the Democratic nominee is....

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 7, 2008 9:45 AM

It'll be like the 2000 Florida election all over again, only with Democrats on *both* sides so this time they can't escape the blame.

Posted by: Ralph Phelan at February 7, 2008 10:57 AM

The prospect of Scalia making the call is made even more delicious by the fact that anybody who's been paying attention (and doesn't have his brain completely addled by this living breathing document applesauce) can practically write the per curiam opinion now, based on the Supremes' unanimous decision this term in the case about the New York state judge:

"The arrangement by which a political party determines who will be seated as a delegate at the party's convention and be entitled to vote on the party's selection of a nominee for the consideration of the 535 electors, such electors to be chosen in a manner prescribed by state law, see Article II, and under no obligation to vote for anybody in particular, is frankly no concern of the Constitution's and no concern of ours. The judgment of the District Court and of the Tenth Circuit telling the Democratic Party to go back to its sandbox and solve its own problems is affirmed."

Posted by: Random Lawyer at February 7, 2008 12:05 PM

The Dems won't dare deprive Obama's nomination if the delegate counts were so close. Those weathervane superdelegates would go Obama to save their own skin.

Poor Hillary, after all these years playing the long suffering wife to Bill.

Posted by: ic at February 7, 2008 2:47 PM