HOW THE NEOCONS ENABLE FATAH:

Fatah's Politics Make Peace Impolitic (Barry Rubin, January 21, 2008 , GLORIA)

[H]ow can Abbas, Fatah, and the PA claim to be sole representative when they don't control over half the land and people supposedly represented? How can Abbas do anything when most of Fatah is closer to Hamas than to his more moderate impulses?

His regime, then, simply cannot deliver an agreement ending the conflict. Not only cannot Fatah regain control of the Gaza Strip, it will be lucky to hold onto the West Bank.

"Fatah is now convalescing," Abbas assures colleagues, "and, God willing, you will witness that it will fare very well" in future. Yet nothing has changed in Fatah. The Arafat crowd, veteran leaders from decades of PLO intransigence, still rule. Whatever Abbas's personal views, there are few moderates among them, nor would they back their supposed leader if he actually tried to stop cross-border attacks, punish terrorism, end incitement, clamp down on internal anarchy, or make a deal with Israel.

This leadership is being challenged by the "young guard" which decries the "old guard's" corruption and suggests it has become too soft. The new generation is by no means more moderate. Its reference point is not the 1990s' peace process but the 1980s' intifada.

Many or most of the young guard prefer a deal with Hamas, rather than one with Israel, and a return to systematic armed struggle. At best, they believe a peace treaty can only come after Israel is expelled from the West Bank, a task that would take decades and if ever fulfilled would whet their ambitions for total victory.

Abbas is trapped. He can neither defeat nor make peace with Israel; neither defeat nor make a deal with Hamas in which the latter would accept Fatah's leadership. Nor can he control his own organization, end the chaos in the West Bank, or implement an economic development program. That's his Shadow. His only asset--though a considerable one--is that both the West and Israel will ignore all these problems and pretend otherwise.

By trying to avoid the inevitable -- the deal where Hamas is recognized as the popular government of a unified state of Palestine -- all sides only harm their own people and each other.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 23, 2008 12:43 PM