January 7, 2008


Why Neither Obama or Clinton will win (David Herman, January 7, 2008, Prospect Blog)

Neither Obama or Clinton will win this year’s presidential election. If either do it would be the greatest shock in US politics since the war.

There has never been a black president, there has never been a woman president but the chances are that sooner or later both will happen. What is less likely, much less likely, for the foreseeable future, is that America will elect a northern liberal.

Look at the record. Since 1945, six Democrats have been elected President. Clinton (1992, 1996) was from Arkansas, Carter (1976) was from Georgia, Johnson (1964) was from Texas) and Harry Truman (1948) was from Missouri. Only one, John F Kennedy, in 1960, was from the North. Five out of six Democratic presidents since the war have come from the South; one from the North. Furthermore, Kennedy won by the slightest of margins, winning 49.7% of the popular vote, against Richard Nixon’s 49.5% and to this day there are rumours of dodgy practices in Illinois, a crucial state in the election, which Kennedy won by less than 10,000 votes. Of the six, it is worth adding, only Johnson made well over 50% of the popular vote, when he trounced Goldwater in 1964, whereas six post-war Republicans have won considerably more than 50%.

Where Maverick picking Jeb as his running mate really pays off is not just in terms of executive experience and ties to Evangelicals, but in appeal to Hispanics and Asian Indians, who will be predisposed not just to vote against liberal social policies but against Barack Onbama in particular.

Only McCain Can Beat Obama (Richard Baehr, 1/07/08, Real Clear Politics)

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 7, 2008 8:36 AM

A Bush on the ticket may sound good, but would be the death knell for the Republican party in November.

Posted by: Genecis at January 7, 2008 11:58 AM

Choosing a Bush as a running mate in 08 would throw the election away for the GOP. BDS would breakout like the plague.

Posted by: Genecis at January 7, 2008 11:58 AM

Jeb would have been president in 2000 if he hadn't lost his first run for governor in FL, but now he never will be.

The Dems are in deep trouble for the White House right now. For Hillary! to win the nomination now, she has to destroy Obama, and once she does that why would the black vote come out for her in full force in November? Never mind that she's despised by such a huge fraction of the country.

As for Obama, besides all of the obvious problems with his candidacy (zero relevant experience, a problematic personal story, and far-left politics), the Clintons will try to sabotage him if he does get the nomination. If he wins, Hillary!'s White House hopes are gone forever. If he loses, they'll be back in 2012 saying "See, we should have nominated Hillary!"

Not to mention the negative-coat-tail effect that will sweep most of the country for either one...

Posted by: b at January 7, 2008 12:33 PM

If its Obama, there can't be a Bush on the ticket.

If its Clinton, why not? Who else to court McCain's key weakness, evangelicals? Huckabee?

Plus it guarantees Florida.

Posted by: Bob at January 7, 2008 2:53 PM

There'll be Bush nostalgia by the election, just as there was for Reagan and Clinton.

Posted by: oj at January 7, 2008 3:12 PM

Jeb/Jindal in '12

Posted by: Jim in Chicago at January 7, 2008 3:51 PM