December 18, 2007

THE PLATES MOVE WHETHER OR NOT YOU BELIEVE IN TECTONICS:

Why Giuliani Needs a Miracle (Rich Lowry, 12/18/07, Real Clear Politics)

Giuliani is finally suffering from the natural gravitational pull of his messy personal life (as mayor, he had a publicly financed security detail for his mistress) and his ideological heterodoxy (especially on social issues). The pull has long been there; only now it has dragged him down to a level where it is no longer an invisible force.

Nationally, his numbers have been on slow downward slide since March. He was at 44-percent in an ABC News/Washington Post poll in February, and at 25-percent in the same poll last week. His lead over Mike Huckabee in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls is a mere two points. Hillary Clinton has a bigger lead over the second-place Barack Obama (30 points) in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll than Giuliani has over the last-place Ron Paul (22 points).

This has trashed the Giuliani theory of the race, which was that his national lead in the polls was a bankable commodity that he could redeem even after losses in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina. It turns out that his national lead hasn't even survived the media attention that has gone to the hot candidate in Iowa, Mike Huckabee, weeks before anyone votes. What happens when Giuliani's competitors begin actually winning the early contests, with the attendant crush of attention and buzz?


Theories that deny reality generally do poorly in the lab.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 18, 2007 11:31 AM
Comments

I've got a friend in New Hampshire who leans Democrat but is supporting Giuliani. (He even asked him a question at a campaign appearance, which I caught completely by accident while watching C-Span). He has been asking me what I think about Giuliani for president. I've always said that, barring very unusual circumstances, I just can't envision a pro-choice candidate winning the GOP nomination. Throw in Rudy's marital problems and he's sunk.

Posted by: Matt Murphy at December 18, 2007 12:10 PM

Unfortunately the most promising candidates on either side are the ones that never get asked questions during the debates, and the ones that make the most sense for the direction of this country. Namely Ron Paul and Dennis Kuchinch. Both of these candidates have as much or more experience in legislative matters as anyone else and even more so than the leading contenders.

Posted by: ragen_dc at December 18, 2007 2:18 PM

Neither has any legislative experience. They've never had a bill pass.

Posted by: oj at December 18, 2007 4:21 PM
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