December 5, 2007

IS THERE SUCH THING AS AN EX POST FACTO CONTRARIAN?:

Wrong First Impressions of Election 08 (Barry Casselman, 12/05/07, Real Clear Politics)

Let us review the conventional wisdom which emerged in 2007.

Initially, it was said that 2008 was likely to replay or continue the political environment of 2006, when deep dissatisfaction with President Bush, the GOP-controlled Congress and the war in Iraq led to many Democratic pick-ups in both houses of Congress that year.

Secondly, it was said that it was the Democrats' turn, after two Republican terms (and the incumbent's unpopularity) to win the presidency in 2008.

Third, with the early scheduling of Nevada and South Carolina, and the creation of a mega-Super Tuesday on February 5 (when almost half of all the delegates would be chosen), it was said that the Iowa Caucuses would no longer matter much.

Fourth, the front-loading of primaries and caucuses was said to produce the party nominees by the morning of February 6.

Fifth, it was said that the premature campaigning, begun at least a year earlier than usual, would turn voters off.

Sixth, it was said, once the list of Democratic candidates was known, that Sen. Hillary Clinton, with her huge campaign financial war chest, her large political organization, her husband's advice and campaigning on her behalf, and her long-held reputation for toughness, made it likely that she would be her party's nominee, and eventually, the new president.

Seventh, it was said that the Republican Party would not nominate someone who is not a social conservative.

And eighth, it was predicted that the war in Iraq was hopelessly mired in negative news and could not be turned around in time for the 2008 election.

As a contrarian, I can report that almost none of the above conventional wisdom is holding up as we enter the actual voting phase of the primary process.


Posted by Orrin Judd at December 5, 2007 5:05 PM
Comments

Our local meteorologists are particularly good at reporting yesterday's weather.

Posted by: ghostcat at December 5, 2007 6:50 PM

Thanks to sky cams our weather people are pretty good about telling us what it's doing outside "right now."

Posted by: Dave W at December 6, 2007 9:38 AM
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