December 16, 2007


Rudy's Incredible Shrinking Campaign (Salena Zito, 12/16/07, Real Clear Politics)

Giuliani went into the campaign season with an unconventional strategy that quickly became all the buzz: Skip Iowa, be respectable in New Hampshire, then head to delegate-rich Florida. The strategy for his campaign was never about momentum; it was always about maximizing his delegate count.

An unconventional Republican primary candidate, Giuliani knew he would be shunned by the ultraconservative activists in early states. His personal Iowa is Super-Duper Tuesday, Feb. 5, which has the motherlode of delegates, who happen to be moderate Republicans. Sounds perfect, right?

Maybe. If he can hold on. But right now, the Giuliani story is that his gamble is quietly becoming the incredible shrinking campaign. "From a historical perspective," says Matt Lebo, a political science professor at State University of New York at Stony Brook, "his strategy is clearly a losing strategy."

A rudimentary application of Occam's Butterfly Ballot tells one that he was only in it for the media adulation and never considered actually contending for the nomination. Once he bows out, citing some bogus pretext, it will be an exact replica of his flirtation with the NY Senate seat.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 16, 2007 8:26 AM

I agree that he has little chance of getting the nomination and even less of winning the general election, but I hope this time, his showings in the primaries, not his health, will be the deciding factor.

Posted by: erp at December 16, 2007 5:22 PM

Polls decided last time too.

Posted by: oj at December 16, 2007 6:34 PM
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