A STROKE OF BAD LUCK:

Panicked Olmert leaks Bush visit plan in vain attempt to cover deep crisis (Israel Insider, December 5, 2007)

The bottom line is that the United States is fast pulling away from what had long been understood to be a strategic necessity: to deal Iran a military blow that would eliminate or radically reduce the existential threat that the current regime represents, emboldening Israel to make painful concessions that would allow a Palestinian state -- on some but not all of the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) conquered by Israel in the Six Day War of 1967.

That was to be the deal, with Israel withdrawing to behind its security barrier, annexing three settlement blocs (Ariel, Etzion and Ma'aleh Adumim), evacuating outlying settlements, and reaching some kind of accomodation in Jerusalem's Holy Basin. In return, the US and Israel would make sure that Iran would no longer be a threat.

Annapolis was to be an assembly of Arab moderates that would isolate Iran. But no sooner was Annapolis over than Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah was jetting to Doha for the GCC Summit, holding hands and shmoozing with Iran's Ahmadinejad, looking for all the world like long-term lovers, even though the Iranian President was a first-time guest at the Summit.

There being no existential threat from without, the U.S. is tiring of Israel trying to destroy itself from within. Ariel Sharon understood why it needed to create a Palestinian state ASAP but its other leaders appear too weak to effect this solution.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 5, 2007 2:10 PM