November 27, 2007

THE MARGINS COULD EVEN BE BIG ENOUGH TO CARRY CONGRESSIONAL RACES:

Zogby: Hillary Defeatable by 5 GOP Frontrunners (Newsmax Staff, 11/26/07)

All five of the leading Republican presidential candidates — including John McCain — would beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head match-up, according to a surprising new poll from Zogby International.

But Barack Obama outpolled all five GOP hopefuls — Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and McCain.


And that's just the Wilder Effect.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 27, 2007 8:43 AM
Comments

It's a Zogby poll, which by definition is not an accurate measure of reality even when you factor in the Wilder Effect. But what this might be showing is that painting your opponent as the "status quo" or pseudo-incumbent is a winning strategy, and all the other stuff the bases care about is irrelevant. It's an appeal that plays well with the mushy middle, which doesn't know what it wants, but knows what it doesn't want.

So how does St.Hillary! lose the Bill's Third Term burden?

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 27, 2007 1:25 PM

I'm sorry to say that if 2008 were cast as "Bill's Third Term," she'd probably win.

Fortunately, she's not Bill, and rubs lots of people the wrong way. She's far too obviously cold and calculating. She's also trying to do a near-impossible straddle: pleasing the anti-war Democrat base while still appealing to centrists. Add in the various campaign-finance and other scandals (Google Hillary+Huma for one), and I find it hard to see her winning the general.

But then I didn't think Bill would win in '92, either....

Posted by: PapayaSF at November 27, 2007 2:14 PM

This presidential race is fasinating. Watching Shrum this weekend on Sunday talk shows spin the obviously strong republican field as "fragile" and now this poll, shows just how wacky this thing is.

I truley think its a scramble and will stay that way for a long while because too many competing cross currents need to play out, Bush fatique, Lefty money, War in Iraq, Rudy's libertarian candidacy, the first black/women president spectre, McCain's age, Thompson's cancer, Huck's corruptedness, Romnneys funny religion, Obama's a lightweight and H is a Bit** not to mention the primaries are in a mess. What fun.

Posted by: Perry at November 27, 2007 3:29 PM

Pap, you were right. Bill couldn't and didn't win. He got the most votes of three with a lot of help from his pal the little general. Had there been a run-off of the top two, he would have lost.

There can be no comparison to bubba's election this time unless McCain is flattered into letting Soros fund him as a "maverick" third party candidate.

Posted by: erp at November 27, 2007 4:04 PM

Who will replace Cheney when he leaves for medical reasons in January?

Posted by: Genecis at November 27, 2007 4:31 PM

Had Gore run for Bill's third term instead of yielding that mantle to W he'd have won. Hillary can run for the fifth Third Way term.

Posted by: oj at November 27, 2007 5:14 PM

Gore ran for Bill's third term and was defeated.

Posted by: erp at November 27, 2007 6:30 PM

Getting to Bradley's Left turned him into Adlai.

Posted by: oj at November 27, 2007 8:54 PM

One of the arguments I've seen the Left use is the "he's too divisive" line. Which is a great ploy. It removes the burden from the people who "hate" and places it on the target of the "hate." Well, St. Hillary! can be pinned with the same problem, if done right. (Not that I expect the Stupid Party to do it right.)

While many people can think of the '90s as a wonderful time worthy of nostalgia, many others can remember the hangover that followed, from "hanging chads" to the first dot-com bust to the perpetual scandal machine to a certain day in September. If St. Hillary! thinks she can renew her family lease in Washington City by running on how wonderful those years were, she'd be doing it.

Has she? I haven't noticed it much. And when she's tried the "two for the price of one" ploy, she gets lumped down with Obama and his foreign policy experience.

That she doesn't play up here former White House residence to the max shows that she and her crew know the bad memories will outweigh the good.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at November 28, 2007 9:52 AM
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