November 27, 2007

FOLK'LL BELIEVE ANYTHING OF AFRICANS:

An Epidemic of Falsehoods (Michael Fumento, 11/27/2007, American Spectator)

For its data, the U.N. had relied heavily on "sentinel-site surveillance" at prenatal clinics. This system was described and faulted six years ago in Rolling Stone magazine. "If a given number of pregnant women are HIV-positive, the formula says, then a certain percentage of all adults and children are presumed to be infected, too." Such an extrapolation from a small non-representative portion of the population to literally the whole world is nonsense.

And UNAIDS knew it because it had been told by a number of careful, knowledgeable scientists such as Berkeley epidemiologist Dr. James Chin.

Chin, when he worked for the UN, was responsible for some of the earliest world AIDS forecasts. Later he watched how politics -- not a virus -- made those figures zoom into the stratosphere.

Three years ago, Chin told me: "They [the UN] don't falsify per se" but "as an epidemiologist I look at these numbers and how they're derived. Every step of the way there is a range and you can choose the low end or the high end. Almost consistently the high end was chosen."

And guess what? Chin, who is also author of The AIDS Pandemic: The Collision of Epidemiology With Political Correctness, still thinks the numbers are too high. He estimates worldwide HIV infections to be 25 million, still about eight million less than the revised estimate.

So at some point the authorities will be forced to lower the figures again.


Given the near impossibility of transmitting the virus to heterosexual men, the estimates were always dubious.


Posted by Orrin Judd at November 27, 2007 3:58 PM
Comments

Let's not overlook the role of stainless steel pricks. The needle and the damage done. In our nation's capital, fer instance.

Posted by: ghostcat at November 27, 2007 7:28 PM

"They [the UN] don't falsify per se"

That's a Monty Python line.

Posted by: Bob Hawkins at November 28, 2007 9:29 AM
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