November 22, 2007
EXCEPT THAT THE ESSENCE OF DEMOCRACY....
Lebanon's Fateful Showdown (Amir Taheri, 11/26/07, New York Post )
Within the next week or so, we'll know whether Iran (acting through proxies in Beirut) will trigger a new civil war in Lebanon.The issue is the choice of a replacement for President Emil Lahoud, imposed by Syria during its occupation of Lebanon. His term of office expires Nov. 23.
Tehran's favorite for the job is ex-Gen. Michel Aoun, a maverick Maronite Christian politician. He is allied with the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah - whose leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has publicly threatened violence if the Iranian candidate does not win.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Islamic Republic president, sees the Lebanese election as a showdown with the United States and a potential blow at the Bush Doctrine of spreading democracy in the Middle East.
...is self-determination. Forcing the Shi'a majority in the South to accept domination by sectarian minorities in the North is the anti-democratic line. Posted by oj at November 22, 2007 9:02 AM
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Actually, it's likely they are and always have been a majority in the entire state. This fact is denied for the same reason Saddam denied it in Iraq. Their subjugation is a black mark on our books. Iran has the better, more liberal, argument.
The key statement is "in the South".
The Shi'a are a plurality in the nation, not an absolute majority. If they want to be on their own in the South, have at it. But even Nasrallah hasn't had the stones to go for that (Syria won't buy it). So the Rube Goldberg government continues. Nothing in Lebanon will change much until Damascus is turned upside down.
That said, Aoun is an idiot for allying with Hezbollah. But his choice is probably driven by Western fecklessness more than anything else.
Posted by: ratbert at November 22, 2007 5:05 PM