September 15, 2007


Hispanics and the GOP: How to lose elections in one Lou Dobbs lesson. (Opinion Journal, September 15, 2007)

Between 1996 and 2004, the Republican share of the Hispanic vote doubled to more than 40%, only to fall in last year's midterm election to less than 30%. The most recent polls show Hispanics breaking for Democrats over Republicans by 51% to 21%. What gives?

To understand this remarkable erosion of Latino support for Republicans, look no further than the most recent Presidential debates. While GOP candidates debated the urgency of erecting a fence from California to Texas along the Mexican border, Democrats debated in Spanish on Univision. [...]

Tone matters in politics, and getting people to vote for you is easier when you're not likening them to Islamic terrorists, or implying that Latino men are hard-wired for gang-banging. Unlike blacks, who have hewed to Democrats in large majorities for decades, Latinos are proven swing voters, and Republican energies would be better employed trying to win them over instead of trying to capitalize on ethnic polarization to win GOP primaries.

It's appropriate for the GOP to continue to run against Rum and Rebellion, but it's the party of Romanism now, so running against Latinos makes little sense.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 15, 2007 1:45 PM

Except non-citizens don't vote.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at September 15, 2007 6:27 PM


Posted by: oj at September 15, 2007 9:53 PM

I didn't know that there were large numbers of Hispanics in OH, NH, IA, IN, and PA (the GOP took its worst butt-kicking in those states in '06).

Or to put it a different way: Saying that the GOP will be behind the electoral 8-ball for the next generation if their percentage of Hispanic votes falls below 30% is similar to "60 in '06" being floated around when any casual observer could tell that the GOP would have some trouble last year.

Posted by: Brad S at September 15, 2007 10:44 PM

The actual demographic changes in the U.S. (that the hispanic and black populations are growing much faster than whites) means that the Republican Party will soon be irrelevant to American politics.

The real question is how will the U.S. function as a one party state where blacks and Hispanics dominate?

Posted by: superdestroyer [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2007 5:36 AM

The US doesn't have ideological parties. The GOP will do what it has to do to remain viable. The long-term losers are going to be conservatives, not Republicans.

Posted by: Ibid at September 16, 2007 8:26 AM

No, the conservatives will drive the changes in the GOP, and will remain viable with them in spite of the demographic changes. Those same conservatives will claim that they were with the Hispanics all along, and most of those same Hispanics will just nod and agree.

You don't understand how conservatives interact with society/media, Ibid. You make the changes and get your face-time when you are flat on your rear end, and when all the pressure is on the winning party.

Oops. Did I just blow the lid off something?

Posted by: Brad S at September 16, 2007 9:37 AM

It is because the parties are ideological that the GOP will simply become brown.

Posted by: oj at September 16, 2007 11:14 AM