September 12, 2007

THE INCREDIBLE DISAPPEARING FRONT-RUNNER:

Giuliani's GOP Lead Shrinks in New Poll (Dan Balz and Jon Cohen, September 12, 2007, Washington Post)

Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani continues to lead the race for the Republican presidential nomination, but he has seen a dramatic erosion in his support, which now stands at its lowest point of the year, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Giuliani's support dropped from 37 percent in a July poll to 28 percent in the latest survey, and his decline from February has been even more sharp. Then, he had the backing of 53 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and had a better than 2 to 1 advantage over his closest rival.

Former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.), who formally entered the race last week after months of exploration, now stands in second place in the GOP field, with 19 percent. That is nearly double the support he received in an April poll taken as he began to express serious interest in running.

But for all the anticipation about his candidacy, Thompson is roughly even with Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), whose campaign has had to weather struggles over the Iraq war, immigration and fundraising as well as the resignations of senior staff members. McCain is at 18 percent in the new poll, arresting a slow decline that began late last winter.


The problem for the Mayor is that he's already bumped his head on the ceiling of his support and there is no floor to stop his fall. The GOP just doesn't have enough Party of Death voters for him to win any -- especially of the early -- primaries. He was getting by on the fact that all anyone knew about him nationally was that he had a good day on 9-11. Once his views started to come out he started to sink.


MORE:
THE TIMES/BLOOMBERG POLL: Giuliani's support is soft in key states: Though the former N.Y. mayor leads the GOP field nationwide, a poll shows him trailing in three early-voting states. (Janet Hook and Peter Wallsten, September 12, 2007, LA Times)

Rudolph W. Giuliani has been well ahead of his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in nationwide polls, but he is far weaker in the crucial states that will cast early votes in the nominating process next year, according to a new Los Angeles Times/ Bloomberg poll that underscores how unsettled the GOP race remains.

Among Republican voters, Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, trails Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he lags behind Fred Thompson in South Carolina.


Which is why he won't run.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 12, 2007 7:49 AM
Comments

I note the enthusiasm (glee?) in your posts about Rudy's poll numbers, while at the same time McCain's numbers are blithely waved aside.

Both interpretations are likely not true.

Fred is apparently going for the home-run strategy: one big speech, one big moment that will swing the conservatives to his team. Like emulating Reagan's speech in 1964, except he wants it to propel him to the nomination this time. It could work.

Giuliani/Thompson is the most likely GOP ticket as of today. Thompson/XXXXX is perhaps the most likely as of Dec. 1. But Rudy is there for the duration, as are McCain and Romney.

Posted by: ratbert at September 12, 2007 10:09 AM

Rudy's not going to run.

Posted by: oj at September 12, 2007 12:54 PM

The fact is that there's only just over 4 months until the nominee is picked, and Giuliani has been the poll leader for much longer than that, so I don't see that it's all that likely that he'll fall apart at this point. Will there be buyer's remorse? Certainly. He's got massive baggage. But luckily the Dems are going to coronate Hillary, and she's unelectable.

Because the gap between the primaries and the election is so long, I suspect that running mates will be picked much, much earlier than ever before. What's Michael Steele up to these days?

Posted by: b at September 12, 2007 1:17 PM

"Rudy's not going to run."

What a strange, strange post. What bizarro-world definition of "run" does not include what Rudy is currently doing?

Posted by: b at September 12, 2007 3:09 PM

Testing the waters. Recall that he didn't decide not to run against Hillary until late May last time.

Posted by: oj at September 12, 2007 4:07 PM

OJ: Please don't tell me you think McVain still has a chance in hades?

Posted by: tps at September 12, 2007 7:32 PM

It's a hierarchical conservative party, the next in line has received the nomination in every cycle since the primaries started picking the nominee.

Posted by: oj at September 12, 2007 11:08 PM
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