September 7, 2007

IF A NEOCON IS A LIBERAL WHO'S BEEN MUGGED... (via Kevin Whited):

The Partitioning of Iraq (Charles Krauthammer, 9/07/07, Real Clear Politics)

Not surprisingly, Washington has not yet caught up to the next reality: Iraq is being partitioned -- and, like everything else in Iraq today, it is happening from the ground up.

1. The Sunni provinces. The essence of our deal with the Anbar tribes and those in Diyala, Salahuddin and elsewhere is this: You end the insurgency and drive out al-Qaeda, and we assist you in arming and policing yourselves. We'd like you to have an official relationship with the Maliki government, but we're not waiting on Baghdad.

2. The Shiite south. This week the British pulled out of Basra, retired to their air base and essentially left the southern Shiites to their own devices -- meaning domination by the Shiite militias now fighting each other for control.

3. The Kurdish north. Kurdistan has been independent in all but name for a decade and a half.

Baghdad and its immediate surroundings have not yet been defined. Despite some ethnic cleansing, the capital's future is uncertain. It is predominantly Shiite, but with a checkerboard of Sunni neighborhoods. The U.S. troop surge is attempting to stabilize the city with, again, local autonomy and policing.

This radically decentralized rule is partition in embryo. It is by no means final. But the outlines are there.


...then what is a neocon who's been mugged by reality?

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 7, 2007 1:23 PM
Comments

OJ?

Posted by: Pepys at September 7, 2007 7:21 PM

A neocon? please....

Posted by: oj at September 7, 2007 7:44 PM

Ha!

Posted by: Benny at September 7, 2007 8:01 PM

I think Krauthammer's on the right track.

The toughest issue to be resolved will be the northern oilfields and the Sunni/Turkomen/Kurd population mix in those areas. An oil revenue policy on the Alaskan model would go a long way toward ameliorating the essence of that problem, keeping in mind the Kurds are basically secular Sunni as well.

Bagdhad will have to resolve itself as a Shia dominated city with the green zone serving as the Federal Government Center. It could work.

Posted by: Genecis at September 8, 2007 10:14 AM

So the Sunni get neither oil nor Baghdad?

Posted by: oj at September 8, 2007 1:10 PM
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