A NUANCE TOO FAR:

The Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Backing Sunni groups is reaping big gains on the ground in Iraq, but it may be unleashing forces the U.S. military cannot control. (Colin Kahl, Shawn Brimley, September 2007, Foreign Policy)

Even if Shiite fears are misplaced, perception in Iraq is reality. By exacerbating Shiite anxieties, the U.S.-Sunni lovefest jeopardizes the United States’ ability to get Shiite politicians to take steps toward political reconciliation. It is also conceivable that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will judge U.S. aid to Sunni militias so intolerable that he demands a U.S. departure and turns to Iran or Syria for patronage. And this is to say nothing of another danger: Sunni blowback. The U.S. military’s desperate effort to destroy al Qaeda in Iraq also empowers Sunni groups that may one day further escalate the civil war, topple the current government, or turn their guns against the United States. Today’s saviors could very easily become tomorrow’s enemy.

Any successful strategy in Iraq must ensure that the sum of local initiatives will add up to a stable and lasting peace. Pulling this off will be tough. Efforts to build up local Sunni militias must be calibrated so that tribal leaders are strong enough to feel secure and fight al Qaeda, but weak enough to ensure they cannot topple the central government. Similar caution should be exercised when applying the Anbar model in mixed Sunni-Shiite areas or within stranded islands of Sunni minority populations, including several neighborhoods in Baghdad. Nonsectarian divisions of the Iraqi Army, rather than local Sunni militias, should police these areas. And the number of embedded American advisors mentoring Sunni forces and monitoring human rights abuses must increase. Money will be another key factor to any successful strategy. Currently, most payments to Sunni groups come from the U.S. military. That’s a mistake. Arrangements to pay Sunnis through Iraq’s central government are a vital next step to assuaging Shiite fears and deterring Sunni troublemaking.

The notion that government is capable of that delicate a dance is lunacy.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 4, 2007 1:24 PM