July 6, 2007


Economy Booming, So What Might Start the Next Recession? (James Pethokoukis, July 06, 2007, US News)

"If you want a job and you're a college grad, you can get one," is the smart—only somewhat overstated—observation that Roy Krause, head of staffing company Spherion, just imparted to me over the phone. Indeed, college grads had just a 2 percent unemployment rate in June, according to new Labor Department data, vs. 3.5 percent for those with "some college," 4.1 percent for high school grads, and 6.7 percent for those who did not finish high school.

More good news came from the June income numbers: Real wages for workers—not managers—increased by 3.9 percent, year over year. Deflate by the core May inflation rate of 2.3 percent—the latest numbers available—and you get real wage growth of 1.6 percent. Not too shabby. Right now, Wall Street recession expectations are pretty low. "The threat of recession has abated, as job and income gains provide the wherewithal to support consumer spending," is the analysis of former Federal Reserve governor Lyle Gramley. In fact, the Big Money Crowd is more worried about China than U.S. housing as a source of future trouble. Case in point: this missive "What Would the Next Recession Look Like" that Goldman Sachs just sent me:

"So, what constitutes a recession in modern times, and when do they occur?"

This much we know, after 25 years without, they'll have to change the definition in order to pretend we're in one.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 6, 2007 10:40 PM

All across the land prosperous people are putting to lie the babblings of these ridiculous aging hippies.

Posted by: erp at July 7, 2007 7:28 AM

If a Democrat is elected in 2008, it will be ontologically impossible for a recession to occur, even if unemployment surges to 8% and the GDP falls by 4%. Would Newsweek dare publish a cover with a pink slip on it (like in Nov. 1990)? No.

But the 'recession' in media will only deepen. Wait until the circulation figures come out in September. There is bound to be a major daily down in double figures (last time it was the Minneapolis paper, I believe). CBS will probably dump Katie before the end of the year. And the raw numbers for ABC/NBC sure aren't going up, either. Plus, the latest blogswarm on AP (over the 20 phantom decapitations) isn't going to be as easy to finesse as the Jamil Hussein fabrications were - this one is a straightforward lie.

Krugman's cat must be past the edge of the universe by now.

erp - right on!

Posted by: jim hamlen at July 7, 2007 8:47 AM

I thought KC's deal is that she'll stay until after the '08 elections then bow out.

Posted by: Sandy P at July 7, 2007 12:31 PM

Straight from her triumph as a news anchor to China to report on the Olympic games. Her commentary is the best part of the TV coverage. Anyone remember her remark as the athletes were marching into the stadium that Bolivia is best known for Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. If she wasn't axed then, she's safe no matter what.

Posted by: erp at July 8, 2007 8:39 AM