July 15, 2007

THE OTHER IRAQ:

Violence ebbing. Wealth returning. Can this be Iraq?: The clamour is growing in America and Britain for troops to be brought home. Violence grips large parts of the country. But elsewhere the green shoots of recovery are showing through the rubble (Peter Beaumont, July 15, 2007, Observer)

[T]here are two Iraqs in evidence these days: not just the one where weddings are bombed and young women murdered in reply. The other Iraq is harder to dramatise but it is equally real. It is a place where boring, ordinary things take place. And in taking place become extraordinary in the context of conflict.

Last week it was the opening of a new $20 million government centre next to Tal Afar's ancient ruined fort. The day before Jamil detonated his explosives' belt, the sheiks and dignitaries came in and crowded through the building's corridors, muttering approvingly as they examined its new painted walls, the photocopiers, printers and computers - some of them still wrapped in plastic - sitting on the brand new desks. [...]

In Mosul, which once hosted 21,000 US soldiers in the city, now only a single battalion, in the mid-hundreds, remains inside the city, matched by an equivalent drop in attacks. And it is not only in Mosul that security is improving. The sense that things are getting better is reflected in Nineveh Province. In two years US troop levels around Tal Afar, once the heartland of al-Qaeda, have been reduced from 6,000 to 1,200.

The general trend for acts of violence - despite some spikes - also has been steadily decreasing. Indeed, until Jamil Salem Jamil detonated his human bomb there had not been a suicide vest attack in Tal Afar since 14 January.

And there are other striking indicators. The last time that I flew across this area, two years ago, what agriculture there was was sporadic. Now it has turned golden with a vast expanse of freshly cut wheat fields that have turned the flat plains that touch the Kurdish foothills into a vast prairie, using almost every patch of viable land.

But the other Iraq lingers here strongly too. Despite two years of effort, organised destabilising violence still exists, largely displaced out of the urban centres to the villages of Nineveh's plain. From their hideouts there, insurgents have turned their attention to hitting infrastructure, attacking roads, bridges and power lines with the aim of separating its rival population groups.

But ask Iraqis or Americans what the biggest problem is in both Tal Afar and Mosul and they will mention the government of Iraq. All of which raises two critical questions: whether what has happened in Iraq's north can be sustained, and whether - with the same time available - it is applicable elsewhere.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 15, 2007 6:15 PM
Comments

If you ask folks around where I live what their biggest problem is, some may well mention the US Federal government. Fortunately we have federalism to blunt some of the impact of an incompetent, intrusive, wastful central government. Iraq has elements of federalism and will have more if before it's over, unless they just divy the country up entirely.

Bottom line is that real estate and equity values in Iraq are doing very well. These are the real metrics to follow.

Posted by: JAB at July 15, 2007 10:52 PM

It seems pretty clear that this coming spring is the when our guarantee of peace within Iraq will end. Come this spring, either Iraq will be relatively peaceful and under the control of the Iraqi army, or not. Look for US troops to stop patrolling, withdraw onto our bases and pull most of our troops out of the country next March or April.

Posted by: Ibid at July 16, 2007 8:23 AM
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