July 1, 2007


Mexican Immigration Will Solve Itself (Robert M. Dunn, Jr. , June 29, 2007, America)

As the debate over illegal immigration from Mexico rages in Washington and across the country, and as the administration’s reform bill hangs by a thread, few Americans are aware that this problem is on track to decline, and will eventually become a vague memory.

There has been a stunning decline in the fertility rate in Mexico, which means that, in a few years, there will not be nearly as many teenagers in Mexico looking for work in the United States or anywhere else. If this trend in the fertility rate continues, Mexico will resemble Japan and Italy—rapidly aging populations with too few young workers to support the economy.

According to the World Bank’s 2007 Annual Development Indicators, in 1990 Mexico had a total lifetime fertility rate of 3.3 children per female, but by 2005, that number had fallen by 36 percent to 2.1, which is the “break even” point for population stability in developed nations. The large number of women currently in their reproductive years means that there are still quite a few babies, but as this group ages, the number of infants will decline sharply. If this trend toward fewer children continues, there being no apparent reason for it to cease, the number of young people in the Mexican population will decline significantly just when the number of elderly is rising. As labor markets in Mexico tighten and wage rates rise, far fewer Mexican youngsters will be interested in coming to the United States. Since our baby boomers will be retiring at the same time, we could face a severe labor shortage.

Places like Spain are already paying people to emigrate there. Within a few years aliens will be such a precious resource they'll be able to write their own tickets.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 1, 2007 6:25 AM

Unfortunately, Mexican illegal immigrants appear to be stunningly prolific in their birthing of anchor babies on U.S. soil. Twelve percent of the Mexican population now lives (and breeds) in the United States. And thanks to the Catholic Pope's continuing denial of the rightness of birth control, people will continue to have more children than they can feed without public assistance programs. Mexico has exported its population problem to the U.S. as it exported its poorest and least-skilled citizens here.

Posted by: Anonyma at July 1, 2007 9:39 AM

Ah, refreshing honesty from the nativists: it's just about Mexicans generally and Catholics in particular. Anti-immigration is at root anti-human.

Posted by: oj at July 1, 2007 10:40 AM

If immigration plummets, whatever will we do to save our cities from the depredation of the fatherless brothers? (See: Robert J. Sampson, chairman of the Soc Dept at Harvard.)

Posted by: ghostcat at July 1, 2007 1:31 PM

All these Catholic Mexicans, yet NYC, Chicago and LA are very pro-choice........

Posted by: Sandy P at July 1, 2007 3:16 PM

Don't know if this comment took the first time, but even tho there are all these Catholic Mexicans living in NYC, Chicago and LA, they're still pro-choice states.

And getting to be more Peoples' Republic to boot.

Posted by: Sandy P at July 1, 2007 3:19 PM

Sandy, if those cities hadn't always been liberal cesspools, maybe you'd have a point.

But I'd sure like to hear how you are going to make California more socially conservative and less socialist without importing Christians. (If that's what you really want!)

Posted by: Randall Voth at July 1, 2007 4:53 PM

Indeed, they've become less liberal.

Posted by: oj at July 1, 2007 5:26 PM

Of course, they're going to liberal states. They're taking the jobs that would otherwise have been filled by kids who were aborted a generation ago.

Posted by: Joseph Hertzlinger at July 1, 2007 9:19 PM