INEXORABLE FORCE:

Immigration Political Dynamics (Bruce Bartlett, 6/12/07, Real Clear Politics)

The immigration bill may be dead for now, but the political forces behind it have not gone away. Those will continue to impact both major political parties for many years to come.

The basic force is that Hispanics are increasing as a share of the population. According to the latest data from the Census Bureau, there were 44.3 million Hispanics in the United States as of July 1, 2006, constituting 14.8 percent of the population. And they are the fastest-growing ethnic group, accounting for about half the growth of population during the previous year -- 1.4 million out of a total increase of 2.9 million.

It is extremely unlikely that the number of Hispanics or their percentage of the population will decline anytime in the near future. Even if the 12 million illegals among them are not granted amnesty, the likelihood of mass deportation is virtually nonexistent. Like it or not, they are here to stay -- and all we are really negotiating is the terms.

Once one accepts that this country will have a large and expanding Hispanic population for many years to come, one has to consider the political implications.

Let's go out on a limb and assume that treating them like enemies isn't an effective political strategy.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 12, 2007 5:51 AM