YOU MEAN IT'S NOT A POPULARITY CONTEST?:

Don't count out McCain just yet (TOM BEVAN, 5/18/07, Real Clear Politics)

McCain is maintaining slim leads in the RealClearPolitics poll averages in all three crucial early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Even more important than his lead in the polls, however, is that McCain has been steadily plugging away building out organizations in these states while Rudy Giuliani has made far fewer visits and is still openly debating whether he will parti- cipate in the first critical test of the Republican race, which will come at the Ames, Iowa, straw poll in August.

• • A little-noticed indication of McCain's strength appeared last week when he edged ahead of Giuliani in the political futures markets. Much like the stock market where real money is being invested by real people, these markets often represent a more reliable and more accurate picture of where the race really stands than can be gotten from individual polls. As of this writing McCain and Giuliani were exactly tied in the political futures markets.

Taken together, these points indicate McCain's true strength as a candidate is probably being understated by the media and the national polls.

But Rudy does so well in generic polls....

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 18, 2007 12:00 AM