May 18, 2007


Don't count out McCain just yet (TOM BEVAN, 5/18/07, Real Clear Politics)

McCain is maintaining slim leads in the RealClearPolitics poll averages in all three crucial early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Even more important than his lead in the polls, however, is that McCain has been steadily plugging away building out organizations in these states while Rudy Giuliani has made far fewer visits and is still openly debating whether he will parti- cipate in the first critical test of the Republican race, which will come at the Ames, Iowa, straw poll in August.

• • A little-noticed indication of McCain's strength appeared last week when he edged ahead of Giuliani in the political futures markets. Much like the stock market where real money is being invested by real people, these markets often represent a more reliable and more accurate picture of where the race really stands than can be gotten from individual polls. As of this writing McCain and Giuliani were exactly tied in the political futures markets.

Taken together, these points indicate McCain's true strength as a candidate is probably being understated by the media and the national polls.

But Rudy does so well in generic polls....

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 18, 2007 12:00 AM

With his support of the new immigration bill, McPain has kissed his chances of winning the Republican nomination good-bye.

Posted by: obc at May 18, 2007 7:46 PM

Which is why Reagan, Bush, Dole & W could never win the nomination.

Posted by: oj at May 18, 2007 8:36 PM

The choices this year are far better than those available then.

Posted by: obc at May 18, 2007 8:47 PM

No big state governor is running. No vp. No majority leader. It's an especially light field unless Jeb gets in. Jeb isn't a nativist either.

Posted by: oj at May 18, 2007 11:43 PM

Sorry, but a cancerous senator in his seventies who just threw open our borders with Ted Kennedy by his side, and who was the author of campaign finance reform with another Lefty - Feingold - and has a serious temper problem, has no chance to be nominated to run against and beat the witch from Illinois - I mean, Arkansas - I mean, New York - I mean Georgia.

Posted by: obc at May 19, 2007 6:28 AM

Except that he'll win IA, NH and SC. End of race.

Posted by: oj at May 19, 2007 10:26 AM

Iowa & S.C. & N. H.,huh? Only in your dreams. He'll be lucky to win one of these - if any.

Posted by: obc at May 19, 2007 1:40 PM