May 30, 2007
IT WORKED CSO PERFECTLY IT MAY EVEN HAVE BEEN ACCIDENTAL:
Expert: Sadr gaining ground among Shiites (UPI, 5/30/07)
Mahdi Army leader Moqtada Sadr appears to be gaining ground at the expense of other Iraqi Shiite leaders, a U.S. expert says."If reports that (Abdul-Aziz al-) Hakim (leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq) is truly ill with lung cancer are true, this could seriously shift the balance of power," Anthony H. Cordesman, who holds the Arleigh A. Burke chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a Washington think tank, said in a statement.
"SCIRI does seem to be losing political influence and strength in the oil-rich southeast, while Sadr's Mahdi Army remains a major force. Coming back (to Iraq from Iran) allows him to reassert control and game U.S.-led security operations," Cordesman said.
"The Sadrists have also shown that they can cooperate just enough with the United States and the Iraqi Security Forces to take the credit for improvements for local security in the areas where the Sadr militia already plays the role, and get away with claiming the credit for any successes in aid while still blaming the United States and government for the overall lack of progress," the analyst said.
It's hard to believe this wasn't the point of the surge--even down to moving him off-site while we whacked the extremists he'd fingered--except that it's rare for government to function with quite such precision. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 30, 2007 7:14 PM
Yes, let's ignore reports in the Telegraph and elsewhere that the Sadr army, either with Mookie's blessing or over his objections, kidnapped the 5 British and call him our ally. Let's ignore all the anti-US rhetoric Sadr spews and that his army has clashed the most with the US forces and call him our ally. Sadr has done nothing to help the US and the Iraq govt calm the country.
Posted by: AWW at May 30, 2007 10:11 PMThe precision is all in the imagination of certain observers. Mookie's men are shelling the Brits, for heaven's sake. How does that square with all this being planned by our side? But I will let you know when I see any evidence that he is more than a hate-filled, ambitious thug.
Posted by: PapayaSF at May 30, 2007 11:55 PMCivil wars require hate-filled ambitious thugs.
Posted by: oj at May 31, 2007 12:08 AMTime was when OJ would have sniffed at someone like Tony Cordesman.
If Mookie were a Sunni, OJ would be piling up the sticks for the fire.
Posted by: jim hamlen at May 31, 2007 1:54 AMConfusion, confusion to the enemy. Just remember to keep acting like we are surprised.
Posted by: Lou Gots at May 31, 2007 4:25 AMjim:
That's the point. The Sunni are the enemy. We liberated the Shi'a and Kurds from them.
Posted by: oj at May 31, 2007 6:54 AMWe aren't going to slaughter the Sunni, just bring them to reality. The surge seems to have two points - bringing the Sunni to reject the evil among them, and getting the Shi'a to stand up as leaders. The first seems to be working, the second is trickier, partially because of Tehran and the Khomeini wannabes like Sadr.
Mookie is our enemy, and is also the enemy of the Shi'a in general. Just because you like his jail cell glare doesn't make him a friend.
Posted by: jim hamlen at May 31, 2007 8:17 AMYes, we stood up the Shi'a leader. The surge worked.
Posted by: oj at May 31, 2007 12:09 PMIf you want Mookie to succeed Sistani, then you must secretly hate the Shi'a.
The surge towards the Sunni is working; it remains to be seen what will happen when we excise the cancer from the Iraqi Shi'a. Perhaps Petraeus himself will shoot Mookie before flying home. But better that a Sadr lieutenant do it.
Posted by: jim hamlen at May 31, 2007 2:11 PMSadr is feeding us the lieutenants that can't be controlled. Your belief that we'll choose Sistani's successor is a form of contempt that occurs naturally when folks think imperially.
Posted by: oj at May 31, 2007 4:09 PMSadr is the primary one beyond control. And he revels in it.
I have no designs on Iraq, but I can recognize Mookie from North Carolina. A petty braggart who can't live up to his father's reputation. An ambitious thug who probably killed his chief rival (Khoie, wasn't it?) when he pulled together his 'army'. A tool of Tehran who wants to be the next Khomeini.
Just what the Shi'a need, eh? We won't choose Sistani's successor, but ventilating Mookie's turban means Tehran won't, either.
Posted by: jim hamlen at May 31, 2007 6:57 PMHe's rather well controlled, as witness his willingness to be shipped to Iran during the surge. He's already done more for the security of Iraq's Shi'a than his father. Which is why Sistani is protecting him.
Posted by: oj at May 31, 2007 8:53 PM