AND LEBANON TO LET GO OF SOUTH LEBANON:

Syrian Endgame: America should press Damascus to let go of Lebanon. (MICHAEL YOUNG, May 2, 2007, Opinion Journal)

The regime of President Bashar Assad is uncertain as to how an Iranian-American rapprochement might affect its own future. While Syria is a close ally of Iran, the U.S. has been pushing for Damascus' isolation, insisting that Syria must change its behavior in Iraq, in the Palestinian territories, and, most importantly, in Lebanon. But it is in Lebanon that Syria has shown the least inclination to concede anything. That's why the U.S. must use any future conversation with Iran, assuming it goes well, as leverage to consolidate Lebanon's fragile independence.

Syria has two priorities, both of which have contributed to increasing its censure internationally and in the Arab world. The first is regime survival. The Syrians feel threatened by the approaching formation of a tribunal to deal with the February 2005 assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister, Rafiq Hariri. Syria is considered the main suspect in the crime, and in their most recent report, United Nations investigators preparing the legal case lent substantial credence to that assertion.

Up to now the Syrians have successfully pushed their allies in Beirut to block creation of the tribunal through a Lebanese constitutional process. U.N. officials and the five permanent members of the Security Council have indicated that if this continues, the tribunal will be set up under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter. Even Russia has said it would not veto this.

A second Syrian aim is to reimpose its hegemony over Lebanon. After the Lebanon war ended last summer, Syria encouraged its ally Hezbollah to mount an effective coup against the government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. This failed after it led to growing Sunni-Shiite hostility, prompting Iranian and Saudi intervention to prevent an escalation that would have harmed their own interests.

Nothing could be better calculated to serve the people South Lebanon and our relations with Iran and the rest of the Shi'a Crescent and to disserve the Ba'ath than if we were to advocate for the division of the Lebanon into its constituent nations. Assad would drop Hezbollah like a hot potato.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 2, 2007 8:05 PM