April 24, 2007

WHY THE MAYOR WON'T RUN (via The Other Brother):

McCain surges among New Hampshire conservatives (Granite Prof, 4/24/07)

What leaps out from Smith's copious crosstabs is how well McCain is doing among New Hampshire's conservative Republicans.

Just two months ago, McCain's net favorables (favorable minus unfavorable) among conservatives stood at a paltry 14 percent. In the latest poll, McCain now stands at + 47 among conservatives.

Moreover, he has increased his favorability among conservatives without hurting his popularity with moderate and liberal Republicans. In February, he enjoyed + 55 net favorables, and the latest survey puts him at + 56.

McCain also doubled his net favorables among undeclareds, from +29 in February to + 57 in April.

Rudy Guiliani is a non-starter in IA and SC so would have to win NH...but can't.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 24, 2007 6:30 PM

McCain's net favorable is up 33 based on what? Except for staying firm on Iraq he hasn't done anything to endear himself more to conservatives. And staying firm on Iraq isn't always a plus in the polls. Also his poll numbers have been slipping in other states, notably SC and IA. The link isn't working so can't see the poll details but you have to wonder about sample size or other quirks that would have skewed the results. Finally, the author says McCain's announcement for the Presidency would be a shock - what planet is he on?

Posted by: AWW at April 24, 2007 9:50 PM

Except for staying firm on Iraq he hasn't done anything to endear himself more to conservatives.

May be the most important thing to conservatives right now is "staying firm on Iraq". Pro-life, pro-choice? It's Justice Kennedy's call, not a president's. May be the conservatives have learned their lesson for "punishing" the Reps in 2006.

Posted by: ic at April 24, 2007 10:32 PM

The implosion of the supposed alternatives. He looks like Jesse Helms compared to Mitt and the Mayor.

Posted by: oj at April 24, 2007 10:48 PM

Got the link to work. Couple of points.

Very small poll - 306 likely GOP primary voters surveyed over 1 week (3/27-4/3).

Hard to figure out where the blogger is getting his impressive change numbers for McCain. The poll shows McCain's net favorability increased from +32 to +50. Largest increase but Romney was +7 and Thompson (Fred) +17.

Independents are a small number of GOP Primary voters and are expected to be an even smaller percentage in 2008 than in 2000.

McCain's age was considered a bigger liability than Romney's Mormon faith and Guiliani's divorces.

Iraq was identified as the most important issue in the poll which probably helped McCain.

Posted by: AWW at April 25, 2007 6:37 AM