March 1, 2007


The Myth of the Middle (Alan Abramowitz and Bill Bishop, March 1, 2007, Washington Post)

The Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) surveyed more than 24,000 Americans who voted in 2006. The Internet-based survey compiled by researchers at 30 universities produced a sample that almost perfectly matched the national House election results: 54 percent of the respondents reported voting for a Democrat, while 46 percent said they voted for a Republican. [...]

[T]he divisions between the parties weren't limited to Iraq. They extended to every issue in the survey. For example, 69 percent of Democratic voters chose the most strongly pro-choice position on the issue of abortion, compared with 20 percent of Republican voters; only 16 percent of Democratic voters supported a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, while 80 percent of Republican voters did; and 91 percent of Democratic voters favored governmental action to reduce global warming, compared with 27 percent of Republican voters.

When we combined voters' answers to the 14 issue questions to form a liberal-conservative scale (answers were divided into five equivalent categories based on overall liberalism vs. conservatism), 86 percent of Democratic voters were on the liberal side of the scale while 80 percent of Republican voters were on the conservative side. Only 10 percent of all voters were in the center. The visual representation of the nation's voters isn't a nicely shaped bell, with most voters in the moderate middle. It's a sharp V.

Which is why Rudy can be popular nationally and have no shot at the nomination.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 1, 2007 6:02 PM

It's still a bit early in the game, but I think it's time to name the third Maverick brother. To Bret and Bart, we now add Burnt. McCain is toast.

Posted by: ghostcat at March 1, 2007 7:08 PM

ghostcat: your point is a funny one, but there were four Maverick brothers. Bret, Bart, Beau, and Brent.

Posted by: HT at March 1, 2007 7:20 PM

Well, that shoots whatever credibility I had left. That'll teach me to fire without Googling.

Posted by: ghostcat at March 1, 2007 7:24 PM

Used to be one of my favorite shows, but I couldn't even remember the character Brent's name, although I did remember that there were four Mavericks in total, which was what led me to Google it.

Posted by: HT at March 1, 2007 8:35 PM

The Breck Girl is the only Beau in the race right now.

Posted by: erp at March 2, 2007 7:50 AM